Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Planning, Fighting, and Sitting at the Table

The Libyan eastern rebels have a plan for victory:

Sketching out the country's path to democracy, after the end of Gaddafi's 42-year reign, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, chair of the National Transitional Council, sought to draw a line under questions about the intent and the legitimacy of his un-elected council, which has become the de-facto government in the rebel-held east of Libya.

That's nice.

Meanwhile, the western rebels are actually fighting to end Khaddafi's reign:

The rebels, aided by a NATO bombing campaign, have transformed the battle in the last few days by seizing most of the city of Zawiyah on Tripoli's western outskirts, as well as a town to the south, cutting Tripoli's two main supply routes.

A rebel spokesman said remnants of Gaddafi's forces further west -- now cut off from the capital and effectively encircled following the capture of Zawiyah -- had abandoned two towns and were retreating toward the Tunisian border.

"Gaddafi's forces this morning withdrew from the towns of Tiji and Badr because they felt surrounded from all sides," said the spokesman, named Abdulrahman, by telephone from Zintan, a rebel headquarters in the Western Mountains.

Of course, I see no mention of plans. Merely fighting. But I'm sure these fighters will allow the eastern rebels to "rebel from behind," as they've learned from their NATO patrons.

I still think the western rebels need to watch out for the eastern rebels cutting a deal with Khaddafi for a "national unity" government that leaves the western rebels out in the cold. After all, the Russians might try to save Khaddafi, thwart NATO by saving Khaddafi, and restoring all those lost arms contracts that Libya might want to renew:

Russia's state-run arms exporter has lost a total of $4 billion over the cancellation of contracts with Libya, Rosoboronexport head Anatoly Isaikin said on Wednesday.

And a deal would perhaps make the disunity in the eastern camp less of a problem (that division surely makes a deal more attractive from Khaddafi's perspective).

Western rebels: watch your back. Reach out to the eastern rebels to make sure you aren't the ones left standing if the game becomes musical chairs. Like I said, my thinking on this is influenced by being a gamer. But losing a civil war in real life doesn't allow for a do-over the next week.