The economic sanctions are becoming more of a problem. For example, most of the traditional gasoline (petrol) suppliers are no longer shipping to Iran. Smugglers are sending in poor quality fuel, knowing that the Iranians will buy it anyway. Iran has proclaimed that it will build gasoline refineries to eliminate the need for imports, but the government has been saying that for years, and now, in addition to the usual corruption and incompetence, they have stronger sanctions that make more suppliers unwilling to do business with Iran. New U.S. economic sanctions are scaring off the major industrial players.Iran has adapted to past sanctions enough for the regime to survive even though Iran does not thrive and their conventional military is rotting. They make do, learn how to smuggle better, and crack down on anyone unhappy with suffering for Allah. So I don't know if Iran will adapt to these new sanctions or whether the cumulative effect of sanctions will finally break the regime.
Iran is clearly counting on support for terrorism and bombast to carry them along in the short run despite their economic and military shortcomings.
In the long run, getting nuclear weapons will provide the ultimate regime protection from foreign threat (and this is the best-case scenario. If Iran wants to use a nuke or nukes to write a glorious page in Islamic history, we're screwed). And that immunity from foreign attack will likely weaken the resolve of foreigners to comply with Western sanctions. Over time, the Western sanctions will peak in effectiveness and then decline, before collapsing outright even if they are in place formally here in the US. Does anyone really think that Cuba's economic problems are caused by our sanctions when anything they need can be gotten from others who ignore the sanctions?
The question is, do we have the time to allow sanctions to break Iran's will to get nukes (perhaps by undermining the government so it falls) or will Iran get nukes in time to nullify sanctions?
Espionage rather than bombs has been the method to slow down the nuclear drive so far:
Iran revealed for the first time Saturday that some personnel at the country's nuclear facilities were lured by promises of money to pass secrets to the West, but that increased security and worker privileges have put a stop to the spying. ...
More recently, nuclear intrigue has fallen on a complex computer worm that has swept through industrial sites in Iran and was also found on the personal laptops of several employees at Iran's first nuclear power plant.
The malicious computer code, known as Stuxnet, was designed to take over industrial sites like Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant and has also emerged in India, Indonesia and the U.S. But it has spread the most in Iran.
So there you go. So far, we've had the luxury of avoiding the need to decide between the choices of letting Iran go nuclear or launching a war to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure and blunt their offensive capabilities (missiles, Pasdaran facilities, certain naval assets).
Yet don't forget that Iran has an option to buy time for their nuclear program to work. If they appear to be nearing the finish line and America or Israel looks like they will bite the bullet and make the choice to attack Iran, the Tehran mullahs could sow confusion in the region. Would we risk more complications by attacking under those circumstances?
Still, even if Iran goes nuclear, I hope we still have one more option that involves striking Iran despite the initial nuclear capability that Iran might show off, in the belief that any nuclear arsenal is enough to deter us.
Only Nixon could go to China. And maybe only a Nobel Peace Prize-owning Obama (given for his potential to combat nuclear proliferation) can attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
