Thursday, October 19, 2006

The Coming War?

This article (via Real Clear Politics) says that Israel is faced with a new war soon and notes ominous developments in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran to bolster the view.

With all the talk of Tet lately regarding Iraq, could we be missing a bigger plan by the Syrian-Iranian alliance? And is the Israeli author failing to see the real target of the developments noted?

Pure speculation, but what if Hizbollah hits Israel again while Syria invades Golan?

And in Iraq, Shias under Sadr and other Iranian puppets rise up in solidarity with Lebanese Shias fighting the Jews.

Then Iran invades Iraq to support the Shia puppet revolt in Iraq, claiming they are simply on their way to hit Israel (as the Iranians claimed for every offensive in the Iran-Iraq War).

Oh, and Iranian agents whip up trouble in Kuwait for an added distraction.

If really ambitious, Iran might try for a coup in Jordan.

And attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz.

Such an ambitious offensive would create a crisis from the Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf and make just supplying our forces in Iraq difficult.

I think we are winning in Iraq. And if the Iranians and Syrians agree with this assessment despite their rhetoric that they will win, they might want to up the ante to reverse our trends. And if they think they are next after Iraq is subdued, they may want to strike first before we do.

It is always a danger to underestimate your enemies. Our enemies want to win and we can't count on them to just go along with our victory. If our enemies are willing to gamble (or perhaps think God's will makes it a certainty rather than a gamble) or are desperate enough, might they not go for broke to try and break us in the whole Middle East rather than just in Iraq?

Something to think about though I admit this is pure worst case speculation on my part. And even if Iran and their allies tried something like this doesn't mean all or even any of it would work.

And also consider that we would never allow an army of 140,000 to be destroyed. We'd use nukes first, I guarantee it, before we'd allow that army to wither from lack of supplies.

Still, I hope CENTCOM has gamed such worst-case scenarios.

Yep, I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

UPDATE: Strategypage notes that Iran has been very busy preparing to stir up trouble among the Shias in Arab Gulf states:

Arab governments have been looking hard for Iranian plots in the last year, and they have been finding them. At first, it appeared to be the usual Iranian support for their fellow Shia. But more extensive pro-Iranian Shia networks have been detected, and it appears that Iran has some big plans, which may, or may not, have been compromised.

Iran tried this in Bahrain in the Iran-Iraq War, too.

So what is Iran up to?