Saturday, October 23, 2010

Information Warfare

Although the WikiLeaks data dump of Iraq War files has already been mistakenly alleged to prove many more Iraqi casualties than the US or Iraq has claimed, even if the WikiLeaks numbers are accurate, it isn't a big increase.

The funny thing is, we only look bad if you put all the responsibility for how Iraqi government personnel acted on our shoulders, and it makes the Iranians look worse for their actions to stoke violence--allegations during the Bush administration weren't just a NeoCon plot to anger Americans at Iran. Yes, Iran is at war with America in Iraq.

And it certainly indicates that the really high estimates of Iraqi deaths alleged during the war are now completely unbelievable. They were pure propaganda designed to defeat us, and nothing else.

Strategypage has a far more useful analysis of Iraq casualties showing few Iraqis died from bombs (we weren't just air raiding villages in virtual free-fire zones in Iraq); that the vast majority of dead were military-age men (showing the lie of nearly every report during the fighting that routinely reported many dead women and children as if we had women-and-children-seeking warheads); that Iran-supported militias murdered lots of people (it wasn't just ethnic and religious differences causing the sectarian violence); and that most women and children actually died in suicide bombings or roadside bombings carried out by the enemy (in practice, the enemy had the women-and children-seeking warheads).

Perhaps the most relevant information from WikiLeaks is that the Iraqi government still needs us:

The enormous cache of secret war logs disclosed by the WikiLeaks website paints a picture of an Iraq burdened by persistent sectarian tension and meddling neighbors, suggesting that the country could drift into chaos once U.S. forces leave.
Plagued by divisions being exploited by foreigners, Iraq needs us for decades to come. We must stay to make sure the now much lower casualty rates don't skyrocket again and help until the Iraqis can resist the internal splits and the external actors tearing away at those weak points trying to ignite massive casualties and chaos again.

So, our casualty numbers are basically correct; our sins have been minor; Iran is responsible for many deaths; and Iraq needs us. Hmm. I might have to reconsider Assange. Is he actually working for us? How else do you explain the heavy expectations of damning information being leaked with the reality of what is in the data, which shows us in a pretty darn good light?

UPDATE: Instapundit ponders the motives, too. He links to an article that notes that the leaked files show that we were collecting WMD in Iraq during the war. This is not news, however, if you paid attention. The leaked documents don't show that Saddam had an active program, of course. But it does show that it was possible for WMD to be hidden for years. Who knows what else is out there?

Personally, I'm waiting for a revision to the conventional wisdom on WMD in Iraq that now holds there were none and no threat at all.