Although there are no firm figures, security and political officials say hundreds of the well-disciplined fighters — many of whom have gained extensive knowledge about the American military — appear to have rejoined Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. Beyond that, officials say that even many of the Awakening fighters still on the Iraqi government payroll, possibly thousands of them, covertly aid the insurgency.
Wow. That would be monumentally stupid. Many Shias would take the opportunity to ethnically cleanse the rest of the hated Sunnis. Why would the Sunnis lose?
One, because they lost the war before when they were much stronger and when the Iraqi government was much weaker. Iraq may have problems focusing on the remaining Sunni terrorists to eliminate them, but ethnic cleansing is far simpler, in the worst case scenario.
And two, it doesn't have to degenerate into ethnic cleansing. We know where the Sunnis who participated in the insurgencies and terrorist campaigns live. Biometrics are a wonderful thing.
For a long time as the Iraq War raged, I wondered if the Sunni Arabs of Iraq were even more stupid and more self destructive than the Palestinians by refusing to accept their inevitable defeat. Their effective surrender in 2007 and 2008 to make a go of working in a democracy with rule of law that protects minorities indicated that they were not criminally stupid. Their only choice now is to leverage the United States presence in Iraq to entrench rule of law so that Sunni Arabs can continue to compete in civil society for their share of the pie.
So hopefully this report reflects but a temper tantrum and threat to help in negotiations to get better terms for the Sunni Arabs. If not, all the Sunni Arabs will achieve is a higher body count--one that will disproportionately be Sunni Arab--before losing completely and ending their lives as refugees.
