The long-term question of drones is whether they are going to remain a remarkably useful weapon in support of a large variety of missions in different ways, or whether instead the US decides to try and leverage them into something much more strategically radical — the new strategic air power. In other words, the latest iteration of a very old dream, the ability to win wars from the air. But this time with a twist.
I noted the value they have in fighting the Afghanistan Taliban but warned that by themselves they can't win the war. That is a more localized warning about "counter-terrorism" that is an equally valid warning about strategic air power in general.
We do have to guard against that general tendency in the Air Force and civilian leadership that wants to believe that air power can provide pain free victory. The ground forces fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan wanted the Air Force to provide manned aircraft and drone support for ground troops over the Air Force's resistance.
The Air Force seems to be embracing the drones and ground support role now, but the danger is that the Air Force will fully embrace them not to provide that wanted support for the ground troops, but to make them just another weapon that will finally make air power a decisive weapon that will win wars without navies or ground forces.
