But despite the jihadi presence and the relatively weak Yemen government, it hasn't felt like a sanctuary in the making. Sure, kill them where we find them and help the government cope, but this isn't pre-Taliban Afghanistan or pre-al Qaeda in Iraq territory, as far as I can tell.
So it helps when Strategypage writes:
Al Qaeda in Yemen has announced that it has established a new "Aden-Abyan Army" to overthrow the government of Yemen. This announcement was mostly for show and to build morale among al Qaeda's battered ranks. But al Qaeda has also been trying to form a tribal coalition in the south, to split the country into north and south Yemen (as it had been twenty years ago.) This effort does not need al Qaeda to lead it, as it's always been there.
The U.S. is pressuring Yemen to crush al Qaeda, and not negotiate another truce. America has given Yemen $300 million in military and economic aid so far this year, so the Yemenis will listen (as long as the aid keeps coming.) But the Yemeni custom is to work out truces or ceasefires, and not really settle things like this (whether or not Yemen will stay united or have a religious dictatorship as a government.)
Al Qaeda can insert itself into the north-south divide, and perhaps leverage that for survival, but there is a lot of chest thumping and poo flinging in all this bravado.
Just keep killing the jihadis. I'll even note it once in a while. Hopefully, I never feel a sense of urgency on the place.
