Sunday, October 17, 2010

When Enemies Evolve

Killings are still taking place in Iraq:

Iraqi police say two policemen and five others were killed in gunfights between security forces and armed groups attempting to rob Baghdad jewelry stores.

Police say two carloads of armed attackers attempted apparently coordinated robberies Sunday in western Baghdad's mostly Sunni Mansour neighborhood.

Gunfights broke out as security forces responded, killing the owners of all three jewelry stores, two gunmen and two policemen.

But it is important to remember that the visible signs of violence are the result of a different kind of fight:

Inability to form a government is not the only problem Iraq has in creating a "civil society." Political and criminal gangs have shifted their terrorism to the security forces. The belief is that it's cheaper, and more practical if you are short on cash, to murder police officers and commanders than to try to bribe them to cooperate. Many government officials are also victims, but the main target is the security forces, especially police and investigative agencies. The police have become too effective in shutting down lucrative criminal operations and, worse yet, killing or jailing gang bosses. Thus, so far this year, over 1,300 policemen have been assassinated, either by rifle (usually a sniper) and pistol (often with a silencer), or, as was the case in about 45 percent of these deaths, by car bomb (explosives attached to the underside of automobiles and detonated remotely or when the engine is started.) Many police have got the message, and know which gangsters are untouchable. But most Iraqis have come to appreciate law and order, and are pressuring the police to keep up the fight, and win. To do that, the police are experiencing the same level of losses they suffered back in 2007, at the height of the battle that finally crushed the Islamic terror groups. That is the past, today's foes are smugglers, kidnappers, robbers and extortionists. The bad guys often win, as can be seen in the growing number of police commanders getting arrested for being on some criminal's payroll.

Even as the fighting raged in Iraq against al Qaeda, the Baathists, and the Sadrists, it was easy to look ahead to see that fighting criminals to create rule of law would be a major stage of the battle for Iraq.

Yet despite the difficulties, Iraq can get rule of law. Claiming that democracy (which means more than just voting) can't be imposed by guns ignores history. Germany achieved that, remember.

But it is a true complaint to the extent that while guns can start democracy, those who live there must embrace the whole concept. Even in Germany, there are rough patches:

A new survey in Germany shows that 13 percent of its citizens would welcome a “Führer” – a German word for leader that is explicitly associated with Adolf Hitler – to run the country “with a firm hand.”

There are many reasons for America to remain in Europe in force, as I wrote in Military Review. One of them is to help support German democracy and reassure others that Europe won't resume internal battles:

A U.S. commitment to Europe in corps strength is still necessary despite the reduced threat level in Europe. The option to withdraw U.S. troops should simply not be part of the debate. A free, friendly, prosperous Europe is vitally important to America. The contrasting lessons of abandoning Europe after World War I and defending it after World War II argue for continued engagement. That a second world war occurred after the U.S. withdrew from Europe early in the last century speaks volumes.

Germany--and Europe--needs our help even after all these decades. The stakes are too high to abandon that job.

And as Iraqis still wage the early battles in the war for democracy, we must accept the job of helping Iraqis win their battle--even if (and it will) take decades of our effort. The stakes are too high to abandon that job.

Enemies evolve and it doesn't matter if we lose a war to a different enemy than we started out fighting.