Monday, January 11, 2010

Hearts, Minds, and Opinions

I've argued that our position in Afghanistan isn't as dire as people commonly think, and that our restrictive rules of engagement are appropriate and necessary (if difficult to watch unfold at times). The Taliban, in short, are not winning.

Recent polling shows that our efforts are having an effect:

Nearly seven in 10 Afghans support the presence of U.S. forces in their country, and 61 percent favor the military buildup of 37,000 U.S. and NATO reinforcements now deploying, according to a poll released Monday.

Support for U.S. and NATO forces, however, drops sharply in the south and east where the fighting is the most intense, the poll said.

Nationwide, 10 percent of Afghans support the Taliban, but the insurgents are backed by a higher percent of the population — 27 percent — in the country's southwest, the poll said.

There are other positive numbers in there, too. Note that even in their stronghold, the Taliban lack popular support.

Not that victory is a popularity contest. We still have to destroy our enemies by killing them. Some will not give up while they live. And even if people express good views toward us, those people still have to also believe that our side will win if they are to support us and turn on the Taliban.

But the popularity contest has an effect when the enemy tries to replace their losses, and finds that not enough Afghans--who also think we'll be there until victory--are willing to join the jihad.

There will be some ugly fighting this year. Polling in this country will have a great effect on whether we have the staying power to win.