The recent al Qaeda in Iraq efforts to punish Sunni Arabs who have abandoned the jihad indicate that the jihadis are losing right now:
The latest three messages from al-Qaeda addressing the Sunni community uncover the depth of the crisis that al-Qaeda is facing in its former host community.
The threatening tone of the missives from the alleged Abu Omar Baghdadi and Aby Ayyub, and the insulting tone of the second by Zawahiri, reflect mistrust, anxiety and a dire need to retrieve what was lost.
By devoting resources to hitting those who have abandoned the jihad, al Qaeda shows that their losses to these defections are hurting them. Otherwise, al Qaeda in Iraq would just attack us to inspire their side and depress our side.
Don't abandon our efforts in Iraq just because it doesn't fit into the false idea that we can only fight al Qaeda by fighting them in Afghanistan. Don't let the SOBs up off the mat.
Pursue them in Iraq. Kill them.
UPDATE: Strategypage writes of the bad month al Qaeda in Iraq has experienced:
Between mid-March and mid-April, al Qaeda suffered major losses in Iraq. American and Iraqi troops killed or captured 53 al Qaeda leaders. ... Most important, nine of the ten most senior men involved, were captured, and interrogated. This led to locating more al Qaeda staff, and assets. ... The result has been a sharp fall in suicide bomber attacks, and the ones still carried out are against soft targets (civilians), including the recent funeral of two men earlier killed by terrorists. This was part of an al Qaeda campaign to force Sunni Arabs to switch sides again and support terrorism. But these attacks have the opposite effect, causing more hatred for al
Qaeda.
Although al Qaeda in Iraq has called for a month of offensives, with the losses they've suffered in Iraq and their focus on stopping their loss of support in the Sunni Arab community, I have to wonder if they are capable of such action? And if the retreating remnants comply and launch attacks, it will be an opportunity to really smash up the declining jihadi elements in Iraq. If we pass the gut check of increased violence over the short run, of course.
