Tuesday, April 08, 2008

The Washington and Baghdad Clocks

Sadr and Iran are losing in Iraq. Austin Bay again writes of our press getting Round Three wrong and notes (as I did) the failure of our press to learn about military matters despite 6 years at war.

On Washington time, Sadr issues his scary talk by threatening to unleash his militia:

The statement came from his office hours before the top two U.S. officials in Iraq — Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker — planned to brief Congress on the situation in Iraq and prospects for drawing down American troops.

"I call on the Iraqi government, if it exists, to work for the protection of the Iraqi people, stop the bloodshed and the abuse of its honor," al-Sadr said. "If the public interest dictates the lifting of the freeze to achieve our goals, beliefs, religion, principles and patriotism we shall do that later."


Sadr still has hopes that the Frightened-American community (Americans of Fright? I'm so bad at this sensitivity thing.) that controls Congress and our news organizations can be persuaded to save his hopes for victory in Iraq.

On Baghdad time where he faces American and Iraqi troops who don't wet their pants when Sadr issues a scary press release, Sadr sounds less bellicose:

Iraq’s largest and most dangerous militia will voluntarily disband if Shia scholars advise its leader to do so, officials said yesterday — a dramatic move that could quell much of the fighting in the war-torn country.

Aides to Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr said that he would send delegations to Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a moderate religious leader in Najaf, and to senior clerics in Iran to consult on whether he should stand down his 60,000-strong al-Mahdi Army.

The sudden announcement — the first time that the rebellious cleric had offered to disband his forces — came as US and Iraqi troops were poised for a key offensive into his Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City.


On the ground in Iraq, with US and Iraqi forces focused on his Potemkin Militia (There is no way he has 60,000 people he can put in the field. This is just one of those numbers that gets credibility from being repeated from one article to the next.), Sadr is seeking a way to retreat that doesn't look like retreat. But the alternative to a disguised retreat, or even an obvious retreat at this point, will be another defeat in battle with hundreds more of his minions dead, wounded, or jailed.

So the question is does the Iraqi government clean Sadr's clock before our Congress can clock out of the war?

Sadr may hope our press will portray him as victorious no matter how badly he loses in the field and in politics. Yet a glimmer of hope is there for those of us who would like a better press corps--National Public Radio this morning called Round Three a "stalemate." Which is an improvement over their previous Iraqi defeat narrative. (And they have the nerve to ask me for money during their pledge week. Never reinforce failure, I say...)

UPDATE: Sadr plays to the two clocks by issuing a scary statement for Washington and weaseling out of the million-man idiot march he threatened prior to the Petraeus-Crocker reports:

Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr threatened Tuesday to formally end an already tattered cease-fire he had ordered his Mahdi Army militia to obey. The radical cleric also canceled plans for a massive protest march against the Iraqi government and its U.S. allies scheduled for today, after complaining about harassment from the authorities.


The "victorious" Mahdi Army cancelled a march in Baghdad because the "defeated" Iraqi government "harassed" them? This is lame even by Sadr's low standards. Sadr couldn't even scrape up enough people to pretend he had a million on the streets. I'm sure our media will explain how this is all a sign of Sadr's imminent victory.