Iraq's prime minister on Friday ordered a nationwide freeze on raids against suspected Shiite militants after the leader of the biggest militia complained that arrests were continuing even after he ordered fighters off the streets.
When I first saw the headline I thought this is bad unless it is related to the deadline for Basra residents to turn in heavy weapons. Reading further on, we find this is indeed the case:
Al-Maliki's statement did not mention the Mahdi Army by name or give a timeframe for the freeze, saying only that the move is designed to give a "chance to those who repented and want to lay down their arms."
Al-Maliki's move appeared to be a goodwill gesture toward al-Sadr and his followers. But it was also a dramatic turnabout: He said Thursday that he intended to launch security operations against Mahdi Army strongholds in Baghdad, including Sadr City, home to some 2.5 million Shiites and the militia's largest base.
Last week, Al-Maliki said that gunmen in Basra had until April 8 to surrender their heavy weapons, but Friday's statement made no mention of that deadline.
I'm looking for indicators that I am wrong that Maliki won Round Three against Sadr in a longer campaign that has yet to be won. So far, I see nothing to contradict my impression of our tactical (though obviously incomplete) victory. This was no Normandy Breakout, but we did grind forward a bit more in the bocage.
We shall see what the Maliki government does when the deadline approaches and whether the Sadrists decide to match their boastful words by going toe to toe with the army again by defying the demand to hand in heavy weapons.
We're used to expecting rapid and decisive operations. Even five years of counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations in Iraq (and tack an additional year and a half for Afghanistan) we still haven't learned patience. The fight against the Shia Sadrists requires even more patience since unlike the various Sunni Arab enemies, the Sadrists can call upon some sympathy as fellow Shia and by using the memory of the elder Sadr murdered by the Saddam regime.
Without the Iranian backing, the Sadrists would be an easy target although it would still take time to reduce these gangs. With Iranian backing we have to be careful that this enemy doesn't carry out a spectacular television operation.
