So What's Next?

We are beating al Qaeda in Iraq.

We are beating the Iranian-supported Shia death squads.

We beat the nationalist (tribal) Sunni Arabs.

We beat the Baathist insurgents.

Each of these elements still fights and kills at reduced levels, but the remnant elements of these groups cannot win.

And before these, we beat the Baathist regime's conventional forces.

The criminal violence adds to the image of instability, but it is not focused so is not a threat to the government. As the politically oriented violence is suppressed, the government will be able to turn on the criminals.

The question is, does this trend mean we will soon have clear evidence that we are winning and finally suppressing our enemies?

Or will a new enemy turn up to replace the old enemies as the primary threat?

Right now, the only likely new threat I can identify is Iran. Would Iran commit their conventional forces in the Pasdaran to invade Iraq and attempt to reverse their losses? We do rely on lines of supply through the lightly defended British sector of Basra. Would Iran try to sever these lines of supply?

While I think this is unlikely, am I giving the mullahs too much credit for rational thought?

If we can avoid reflexively wetting our pants (I'm talking to you, Congress), any conventional Iranian intervention would be an opportunity for our air and naval power to really mix it up with the Iranians. We might suffer initial setbacks, but we'd annihilate the Iranians if they crossed the border.

Or am I missing another threat (outside of Congress) that could arise to challenge us in Iraq?