We'd beaten the Baathists and the Sadrists while the jihadis had no popular support outside of a narrow band. It looked like Sadr would be addressed as a political problem. We were on a path to reducing our force levels to 100,000 by the end of the year and minimizing our combat role.
The destruction of the Golden Dome changed everything and started a new phase of the war.
So I was pleased to see my judgment ratified by David Kilcullen who spoke of the dramatic change that terrorist attack provoked (Tip to Belmont Club):
DAVID KILCULLEN: ... And enormous numbers of people died. You know, between the 22nd of February and the end of March 6,000 bodies turned up in the streets of Baghdad. You know, people were just being -- getting killed all over the place. And it was just fundamentally destructive to the social fabric of Iraq.
So, what I would say is not that General Casey did it wrong and General Petraeus did it right, it's that it's a two-sided .
CHARLIE ROSE: Things change.
DAVID KILCULLEN: Things change. When -- why did they transform the war? Because we were winning. Right? Also, in 2005, we had improvements in the security situation. We had two very well-attended elections, where lots of people came out and voted. We had progress towards a political solution. You know, it was all, you know, obviously, there were still problems and challenges, but we were moving on a broadly positive path. The enemy saw that, so they transformed the [war].
And our surge reflects the transformation. It isn't that we weren't winning until the surge--it is that a new phase of the war started and we needed to adapt what had been a winning strategy and which was proving inadequate to handling the new situation. Starting the surge in January 2006 would have made absolutely no sense because we were in a different phase of the war.
That's how wars go. It has sometimes seemed like I'm in a lonely outpost arguing that we have been winning rather than losing as much of the conventional wisdom asserts. But I trust my judgment on military matters. We had a destination--victory--and the road we were on to get there was shut down by the enemy because they could see we'd reach our destination that way. So we detoured. But the ultimate destination is the same. And we're making good time again. Also, the sign says there's a rest stop ahead.
I trust that I am not letting my fervent desire to win infect my analysis of what we are doing and what we need to do to win.
Patience, people. We are still winning this war.
