Yet the al Tet moment seemed to pass. And the latest casualty figures in Iraq paint an enemy less effective than before the surge.
This failure of our enemy to attack while our national focus was on Iraq is all the more significant since our debate coincided with Ramadan. Ramadan has tradionally been a time of jihadi surging as these enemies figure dying during Ramadan is a free ticket to Paradise.
Yet half way through Ramadan, the jihadi faithful aren't particularly active:
This year, for the first time since our troops have been in Iraq, the Ramadan Spike has failed to materialize. Few events in Iraq were as predictable as the yearly rise in causalities it signified. In 2004, 2005, and 2006, shortly before and during the autumn months in which Ramadan has recently occurred, violence against US forces escalated significantly.
Not this year.
The missing Ramadan Spike is an immutable sign that Iraq has entered a new phase. What seemed to be an unstoppable cycle of violence has diminished. Ramadan began either on September 12th or 13th of 2007, depending on your source. As of this writing Ramadan is more than halfway over. Not only has the monthly U.S. death toll decreased since August (barring any spectacular attacks or accidents before the end of the month) but within the month the daily death toll appears to have actually slowed down over Ramadan.
The Ramadan Spike has become the Ramadan Slump.
As we search for the significance of this enemy reaction to the surge, title this part of the war narrative "the God that did not bark."
