It doesn't matter if it is a test or a satellite launch. The message they are trying to send is that we are vulnerable to their nuclear missiles. The lesson they want us to learn is that we should pay them to stay their terrible swift nuclear sword.
Well, we are considering it:
The Bush administration is weighing responses to a possible North Korean missile test that include attempting to shoot it down in flight over the Pacific, defense officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday.
Because North Korea is secretive about its missile operations, U.S. officials say they must consider the possibility that an anticipated test would turn out to be something else, such as a space launch or even an attack. Thus, the Pentagon is considering the possibility of attempting an interception, two defense officials said, even though it would be unprecedented and is not considered the likeliest scenario.
The world would not like it if we shot it down:
Robert Einhorn, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said a U.S. shootdown of a North Korean missile on a test flight or a space launch would draw "very strong international reaction" against the United States. He saw only a small chance that the U.S. would attempt a shootdown.
Will the world be the target of a North Korean nuclear missile? I think not. Screw the world. We know why North Korea builds missiles. Truly, the international reaction will probably be stronger if we shoot down the missile than if North Korea nukes us or Japan or South Korea.
The international community is funny that way.
The article is also interesting in the two methods mentioned to knock out the missile--bombing the site and shooting them down with our missiles based in Alaska. The former is too much an act of war and the latter too new a weapon to be sure of succeeding. This assessment is probably right.
But these are only the first and last methods in a layered defense. We also have ships at sea that can knock down the missiles as they launch. The Japanese have these ships and missiles, too.
If we shoot down the North Korean missile, it will be by these weapons based at sea. Why wasn't this layer mentioned in the article?
Interesting omission.
Shoot down the North Korean missile. It will scare the crap out of Pyongyang. And Tehran, too.
UPDATE: We are minimizing the ability of our national missile defense prototype to shoot down a North Korean missile. I think this is probably right, as I've already stated. Looking at the map with the article is instructive. If the North Koreans shoot it over Japan, that would be a trajectory that puts it on a path away from us and across our system, moving at high speed. Even if in range, we probably can't intercept such a fast target moving across the field of fire. Our system is probably designed to knock down a missile coming at us, so to the anti-missile, it isn't really moving all that much--just getting bigger. So if North Korea fires it directly at us, we'd have a shot at it. If across Japan, we won't even have a shot at it.
But as I said, I think American and Japanese ship-based systems stationed near North Korea are the ones to watch. If North Korea lights one off on a surprise firing, we have every right to consider it an act of war and shoot it down. If we can't hit one missile with a barrage of our own, what have we been spending money on?
Actually, it would probably be better to let Japan shoot it down. They would be directly threatened with a shot across their territory and if they miss, our ability to shoot a missile down isn't necessarily called into question.
Please just tell me we won't rely on a barrage of harshly worded diplomatic notes.
UPDATE: According to Strategypage, Japan does not have the Aegis anti-missile system yet. (And Hutchison thinks trying to shoot down the North Korean missile risks more than it could gain us).
And in related matters, Japan and America are increasing our joint anti-missile efforts. Plus Chinese and Russian warnings to Pyongyang will probably keep us from having to weigh the risks involved in shooting down a missile.
