Saturday, June 17, 2006

The Perils of Collaboration

The seizure of information from Zarqawi's terrorists has had a bigger impact than I thought. I had figured that at only 10% of the enemy, al Qaeda in Iraq's losses would be important by hurting the most vicious group composed of foreign jihadis. But the impact is wider.

Strategypage highlights something I did not know:


Zarqawi considered al Qaeda's situation in Iraq as "bleak." The most worrisome development was the growing number of trained Iraqi soldiers and police. These were able to easily spot the foreigners who made up so much of al Qaeda's strength. Moreover, more police and soldiers in an area meant some local civilians would feel safe enough to report al Qaeda activity. The result of all this is that there are far fewer foreign Arabs in Iraq fighting for al Qaeda. The terrorist organization has basically been taken over anti-government Sunni Arabs. That made the capture of Zarqawi even more valuable, as his address book contained a who's who of the anti-government Sunni Arab forces. This group has been hurt badly by last week's raids. [My emphasis]

Apparently, the foreign jihadis have had to merge with the local jihadis to make up for declining foreign recruits making it into Iraq. So taking down Zarqawi and grabbing information from him has damaged two groups--the foreign jihadis and the local Sunni zealots who can't stand the thought of Shias and Kurds running the show.

I wasn't aware of this blending of two previosuly distinct groups. I did wonder about the numbers being reported of people being picked up and thought, wow, that's an awful lot for a tiny group! This explains those numbers to some degree.

And the fear of what information the Coalition has should have an impact, at least for a while. We must exploit this to make the advantage lasting and contribute to victory.

Good news, indeed.