Blair is panicked, as are other European leaders, about the encircling arms of the Russian bear. Putin may have taken a moment to gloat.
A confluence of circumstance and geography is making Europe dangerously dependent on Russian oil and natural gas for its survival.Already, 50 percent of the oil burned in Europe and 30 percent of the natural gas comes from Russia. The natural gas percentage is likely to rise dramatically with the new northern pipeline, under the Baltic Sea, extending all the way to Britain. Some countries, such as Germany, are likely to become entirely dependent on Russia for gas. They will also be dependent on Russia for some of their electricity because most new electric generation that has been installed relies on gas turbines.
The effect of Russia's energy dominance of Europe is a massive geopolitical change, binding Europe to Russia at the expense of its old alliances.
Perhaps this is worrisome. But Russia is not the old Soviet Union. Russia is militarily weak and greatly in need of the money that energy sales provide. Had the Soviet Union, with massive numbers of troops poised to invade NATO, earned this money from sales of energy to NATO countries, I'd have worried about the Western European reliance on Moscow.
The reality is that even a post-Cold War Europe stupidly convinced that mere military power is obsolete is much more powerful than Russia. As long as Russia is a geographically vast but hobbled giant, the Russians should worry more that European reliance on Russian energy will lead Europe to exert influence on Moscow to ensure reliable supplies. The Russians should worry that Europe will see its economic and military superiority as tools to compel Russia to keep the energy flowing. Does anybody worry that Canada or Venezuela or Mexico exert undue influence over America because they export energy to us? Do people worry that Sudan will pull China's strings because China is exploiting oil fields there? Sure, Saudi Arabia's position as the largest exporter stays our hand but not because the Saudis sell oil to us. It is because they have such a large share of the total exports that any disruptions will ripple across the globe. And recall, too, that thirty years ago there was talk of whether we would invade Saudi Arabia to ensure oil supplies if the Saudis cut us off. Even Saudi influence has limits. Power disparities matter.
Look, I want Russia thinking of the West as its natural home. Perhaps the income from the oil sales will make Russia value its position as a European state and Russian rulers will start thinking of Russia as a European state.
Perhaps this development is worrisome, but given that circumstances are different now than in 1988, I am not worked up about this. Indeed, I tend to think this can work to our advantage.
