When it comes to power, for the current Communist elite it is a case of ming cun shi wang : "The name remains, but the reality is gone."
Nor can the Chinese Communist Party regain its once near-total control of China by any of the methods now being used or discussed -- whether by expansion of armed internal security forces, more arrests and attempted control of all media including the Internet; by stimulation of the economy; or even by internal reform of the party.
Today only the people can anoint a leader and government that will enjoy real power in China, and that can happen only through an open political process. Beijing's power has been slipping since the provinces received new autonomy after the 1989 Tiananmen massacre. Now the "governance without politics" that has existed since strongman Deng Xiaoping died in 1997 is approaching its limits.
Well, here's hoping. But people power only works when the authorities lack the will to respond to waving banners and slogans with brute force and bullets. Are the limits of current governing policy being reached? Yeah, probably. Given the increase in protests across China (via Winds of Change), I imagine this is right.
But I don't think that communist party surrender or collapse are the only alternatives to an outbreak of people power. The Chinese communists have had a long time to study the lessons of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. And to compare Russia's response to China's time of testing at Tiananmen in 1989 when brute force crushed people power.
If there is an insert-your-color-here revolution in China, the government will not hesitate to use brutal and sustained violence to preserve its rule. The only weak link will be the question of whether the PLA and the People's Armed Police obey orders from above to shoot-to-kill.
If the security apparatus remains loyal, the people are gone.
I don't know the Chinese expression for that thought. But I bet the CCP does.
