Sunday, October 02, 2005

Niche Marketing

I noted that I didn't quite understand the Iranian threat to halt oil exports if the IAEA referred the Iran question the UN Security Council. I thought that an oil threat merely risked making the Euros take note when otherwise they might just shrink from confrontation. I thought that Iran would feel the impact of no revenue and no gasoline imports before the world felt the relatively smaller impact of no Iranian oil exports.

And let me add that if Iran simply didn't sell to particular countries it wouldn't matter as other sellers picked up the slack. Iran would only be shuffling the tanker routes.

Well interestingly enough, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad apparently thought he was speaking to a Western-published paper and not a paper read in the region:

However, the Khaleej Times acknowledged that the confusion might have arisen because the reporter, a freelance journalist, told the president she was working for another paper.

After the story quoting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared aturday, the president's office issued a statement saying he "never had an interview, either oral or written" with the newspaper.

On Sunday, the Khaleej Times acknowledged that the confusion might have arisen because the reporter, a freelance journalist, told the president she was working for another paper.

The newspaper said the reporter on several occasions "presented herself (to Ahmadinejad) as a reporter with the American-based Arabic News, and not as a Khaleej Times reporter, though she has given this report exclusively to Khaleej imes."


Isn't that interesting? It looks like the Iranian president hoped to convey a threat to be read in the West and which his own people might not see. Scare the Euros but don't worry the Iranian subject people that life might get a little rougher under the mullahs as they press their insane drive for nuclear weapons and the consequences be damned.

And note the mullah's president is denying the statement while the paper stands by its report.

Iran isn't as confident as it tries to appear based on its bluster. I do hope that regime change in Iran is going to be attempted very soon.

Iran is our enemy and they want nukes. Take them out at the knees before it is too late.

UPDATE: Strategypage says that if Iran cut off oil exports it would have a great impact on the world and little impact on Iran (though the post says Iran relies on the income to maintain the regime, as I noted):

October 1, 2005: Iran threatened to limit its oil shipments (currently four million barrels a day), if the UN took action against Iran because of Irans nuclear weapons program. If Iran cut back on oil shipments, it would drive up the world price of oil. The loss of revenue would not have any immediate effect on Iran (where the oil money is used to help keep the Islamic conservative minority in power), but the higher world price for oil would have a negative impact on the world economy.

I'm no economics expert. I came to my conclusion based on the fact that Iran never stopped exporting in the 1980s and the knowledge that Iran needs the money to stay in power. Plus the general observation that the entire world would have to absorb the lack of Iran oil while the Iranian regime alone would have to absorb the lack of the world's money. Perhaps it all depends on what it means to have a "negative impact on the world economy" (I agree) and what "immediate effect" on Iran means.