Friday, August 10, 2018

In What Alternate Universe Does This Make Sense?

Russia's navy (Voyenno-Мorskoy Flot—VMF) is not going to successfully challenge America at sea and we should probably hope the Russians try.

Oh get real:

The Russian VMF seems to be emulating the Soviet Red Navy by investing in highly specialized and expensive assets designed specifically for an all-out war with the U.S., while neglecting more universal ships usable against other possible enemies in local wars. The Lider-class currently exists only on paper. But in the meantime, Moscow is expending great effort and money to revive and modernize its four 28,000-ton Kirov-class battlecruisers.

I'm fine with Russia's pointless blue water naval ambitions, as I've noted many times (here, here and here, for example).

One, Russia's fleet revival is a Potemkin Village of grand announcements, partial work on old Soviet legacy capital ships, and faltering work on the nuclear submarine fleet. In reality, only small surface vessels are being built.

Two, a revived Russian fleet gives NATO navies suited to coastal waters near the continent something to do. So increases in Russian power to a certain level doesn't threaten America because it is absorbed by existing European NATO naval power. Maybe even the Germans will restore their naval power from the ranks of the dead.

And three, spending money on a blue water navy that goes beyond coastal protection and a sea-based nuclear deterrent with the forces to protect them in sea bastions near Russia takes away scarce resources from land power and air power that Russia desperately needs to protect their long land border--or which could threaten states on Russia's western border. So sure, build a blue water fleet that can sail to the mid-Atlantic (after attrition in the choke points leaving European waters) where it will be sunk trying to challenge America at sea! Russia can totally afford it!

Russia condemned a new round of U.S. sanctions as illegal on Thursday after news of the measures sent the rouble tumbling to two-year lows and sparked a wider asset sell-off over fears that Moscow was locked in a spiral of never-ending curbs by the West.

Putin should just buy a shiny red sports car if he wants to relive glory days without damaging Russian security. If this sea objective is real rather than naval propaganda to create an image of reviving blue water power without actually wasting money on achieving it, somebody really needs to tell Putin he's effing up royally.

UPDATE: It isn't just the navy that is in sad condition:

Government efforts to project the image of a modern, professional and constantly improving armed forces is proving more difficult to sustain. During the decades of communist rule the state had complete control over the media, a massive internal security forces and, most important, no Internet or smart phones. Those last two items have crippled efforts to persuade Russians and foreigners that Russia was still a major developer and manufacturer of new weapons. The constant stream of press releases detailing new weapons the Russian forces will be equipped with are undermine by the reality, often documented vis smart phone video spread via the Internet. The new weapons often do not work at all and even if they do there is never enough money to produce them in the quantities implied. Russian development and manufacturing efforts are still crippled by shortages of cash and talent.

Russia is a danger not because of how strong they are compared to America or even European NATO states as a whole, but because they have enough military power to achieve an advantage over eastern NATO countries in the short run to take territory; and nukes that we can't assume don't work to then threaten NATO if it tries to retake the territory occupied by Russia.