Friday, October 13, 2017

What Do They Know?

Did North Korea steal a plan for operations north of the DMZ or did North Korea steal the plan for pushing north of the DMZ?

Well, that's interesting:

North Korean computer hackers have stolen hundreds of classified military documents from South Korea including detailed wartime operational plans involving its US ally, a report said Tuesday. ...

Among the leaked documents was Operational Plans 5015 for use in case of war with the North and including procedures for "decapitation" attacks on leader Kim Jong-Un, the paper quoted Rhee as saying.

This supposedly happened in September 2016.

If this had happened more recently, I'd be more likely to think that the plan stolen was deliberately made vulnerable to scare the North Koreans while leaving the most up-to-date plan secret.

Happening a year ago makes me think it is more likely that the plans stolen are real. Unless of course an update to the plan was going on even back then either because of new information about North Korea's nuclear plans or because it was at a routine update point.

So I don't know that to think. And have no way to know what to think.

Personally, I think any major move north of the DMZ--including a thrust to grab their nukes--requires a collapse of the North Korean military; unless the move is a narrow offensive to create a no-launch zone in order to protect Seoul.

Of course if China hammers North Korea from the north, it could be a race for South Korea to carve out a buffer zone to prevent China from taking over the role of threatening Seoul.

UPDATE: Sounds like just a summary of the big picture was stolen. And I have no idea if this is an old summary or the current summary.

This was meant to be seen, of course:

The U.S. military in South Korea is preparing to hold evacuation drills for military families and other civilians, weeks after President Donald Trump pledged to "totally destroy" North Korea if he is forced to defend the United States and allies.

This will take place later this month.

UPDATE: I know I've written on our operational plans for going north, surely quoting Strategypage; but I can't find anything when I search for them. Very frustrating. And note that other stories say OPLAN 5027 is the main plan. What variation OPLAN 5015 is, I obviously don't know.

UPDATE: And as Strategypage reminds me (and I did know this even though it didn't leap to mind initially), even an old plan will have a broad base of unchanging basics that are useful to know.

But if the "plan" was a summary, it won't provide that knowledge.