Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Look East

Russia is building a modernized naval base for their Caspian Sea flotilla. This will support Russian diplomacy in their "near abroad" (former Soviet-era territory) in Central Asia to resist Chinese influence as China pushes their one belt one road project (aka the New Silk Road) through the region to Europe.

Russia is getting a new Caspian Sea base, a region long neglected by Moscow:

Russia is planning to create a new home base for its Caspian Flotilla, moving it from Astrakhan to Dagestan by 2020. The new base will be one of Russia’s most technically advanced naval facilities, Ministry of Defense officials have said. ...

But the Caspian gained some prominence in Russia’s strategic vision when it was the site of a series of missile attacks against targets in Syria. This, according to Izvestiya, has earned the sea the nickname “the swimming pool with missiles” among the sailors stationed there.

Sure, the sea is a launching pad for missiles fired into the Middle East region. But the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and air and land bases in Syria could provide the same capability. It's a nice addition but nothing critical for this capability. And Russian defense rubles are tight these days.

This, I think, telegraphs the intent:

As it happens, the news of the new base came out the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a rare visit to Turkmenistan, on the other side of the Caspian. Turkmenistan has been building up its own navy, but has stayed out of these sorts of mutual cooperation activities. It’s not clear if naval issues were on the agenda for Putin’s visit, but you can be sure that the trans-Caspian pipeline was.

Is the pipeline of interest to Russia? Sure.

But the broader Russian interest is China's move to the interior of Asia to encourage trade with Europe and which will increase Chinese influence in the countries on the route.

I have no doubt that Russia would not be happy to lose influence in Central Asia.

And I welcome this Russian counter-move to encourage China to divert resources inland.