Sunday, October 22, 2017

A Paler Shade of Red

Russia has been more aggressive for the last decade but Russia is still a faint version of the Soviet threat to NATO. A Norwegian military decision highlights both aspects of modern Russia.

Norway reacts to Russia's threat level:

Norway said on Friday it planned to send an armored battalion near its arctic border with Russia and buy more tanks and artillery to respond to growing threats.

It's actually a "cavalry"--an old name that covers reconnaissance units composed of tanks and armored infantry vehicles--unit. In theory it would screen the border region against small threats and fall back and delay an enemy advance in case of a big threat.

The Norwegians also plan to buy more tanks and artillery, in response to the higher threat levels, as part of the plan:

It also includes more investment in tanks, artillery and long-range precision weapons in the area and other locations further south, together with an extension of the time people have to spend in some national service positions to 16 from 12 months.

Russia is more aggressive. So Norway is responding.

But putting a significant portion of Norway's armor (in 2012 Norway had about 50 tanks) up there is also a symbol of Russia's weakness compared to the Soviet threat.

In the Cold War, America put equipment in Norway to help Norway defend southern Norway. We did that because for a long time NATO planned to defend the seas at the Greenland--Iceland--United Kingdom gap, which would leave Norway isolated from sea reinforcements and supply.

There was no hope of defending too far north in Norway because the Soviets could use their (hopefully temporary) naval superiority to land naval infantry to outflank any force put too far north.

And a large force of paratroopers could be used, too.

But now the Russians have little hope of staging a major amphibious or airborne operation in Norway. The Norwegians could fight and fall back with the support of NATO air and naval forces.

Russia is a threat because of weak foes on their western borders. But Russia--despite bellicose rhetoric--is a far cry from the Soviet Union and the threat it posed to NATO.

Indeed, did the realization of their weakness compared to the Soviet days lead the Russians to declare victory against NATO and (figuratively) go home?