Israel failed to defeat Hezbollah in 2006, notwithstanding the relative quiet of Hezbollah since then:
In 1973 the Israelis needed 18 days to mobilize and defeat the combined militaries of Syria and Egypt. This time the Israelis were unfocused, intent on winning with air power alone, then used minimal ground force in a shallow frontal assault that was just a low-level war of attrition, and then gathered forces for a big push that lasted all of half a day or so before pulling back. They could have had longer if they hadn't misused their air power in a misguided strategic campaign that compelled Sunni Arab states to cancel their support for Israel's fight against Shia terrorists.
Hezbollah was perhaps made more cautious, but they are still a combatant and determined to do better next time.
Fortunately, I believe Israel has learned what they did wrong in that war and have been preparing to do better, pushing deep into Lebanon to not only occupy the rocket-launching band of territory in southern Lebanon, but to tear up Hezbollah's rear area:
Drop paratroopers in Baalbek to hit and secure the Hezbollah rear area, drop troops by helicopters at key points between Baalbek and the Israeli border to facilitate movement north, and unleash mechanized units to advance around Hezbollah light infantry in the south to link up with the paratroopers (and smash up the isolated Hezbollah infantry left behind), and the next war will be very unlike the airpower-centric failure that 2006 was.
Israel's offensive will be more effective because Hezbollah can't run to Syria as a sanctuary of last resort. Run to Syria and the rebels will shoot at them, too.
Israel is highlighting preparations to hit Hezbollah. And funny enough, the story emphasizes the army's training:
During Thursday's exercise, near the Revivim collective farm, scores of Israeli reservists in full battle gear participated in a drill meant to simulate Israel's capture of a strategic hill overlooking a southern Lebanese village.
In the drill, three tanks kicked up dust as they charged forward and fired live rounds. In front of them, groups of soldiers lay flat on the ground and opened fire with propped-up guns as other soldiers stormed up the hill. Their targets were small cutout cartoon heads meant to represent Hezbollah fighters.
On a nearby Israeli army base, reservists have also been practicing urban warfare recently on a set made to resemble an Arab village, complete with concrete homes, narrow alleyways and mosque minarets.
Military officials say that while Hezbollah has upgraded its capabilities, Israel has also made important offensive and defensive changes since 2006, when it came under heavy criticism for its lack of preparedness and perceived sloppy performance.
They say the military now possesses sophisticated real-time intelligence and upgraded drones. For any potential land operation, it has fortified its armored personnel vehicles, activated a new tank defense that can shoot down anti-tank rockets and recently deployed "Iron Dome," a defense system that shot down hundreds of rockets during a recent round of fighting against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.
Israel was pretty shocked that organized Hezbollah fighters used anti-tank missiles to disable Israeli armor. I fault poor tactics more than anything, but active defenses on the tanks will help out, too, as long as the tactics are better (like remembering that an armored vehicle's main weapon is mobility and not its armament).
Remember, too, that although Israel's Iron Dome works, its weakness is ammunition supply. Israel will run out of Iron Dome rockets before Hezbollah runs out of rockets to shoot. Even against Hamas' smaller arsenal, Israel ran into that problem. But Iron Dome does work. So Israel has time bought by their Iron Dome rocket defense system to advance into southern Lebanon to occupy the ground from which the rockets are fired. An Israeli soldier standing on the launch site is the ultimate rocket defense.
While doing that, I'd push deep into the rear of Hezbollah rather than focusing on the rocket-launching band before moving north. Go deep early, and Hezbollah fighters will be looking over their shoulders with more interest than looking south to Israeli towns and cities.
Oh, and while Israel didn't use ground troops in the recent Gaza punitive mission, they did get a lovely practice mobilization of 40,000 troops. That might be useful experience for Hezbollah, no?
Israel may only want to frighten Hezbollah into passivity in a showdown with Iran, but I think that Israel will have to put their plans in motion. Any rationality Hezbollah displays is a thin covering over the nutballery under the surface. A chance to kill Jews is a chance to kill Jews, as far as they're concerned.
