But I grant him his criticism of one aspect of air-sea battle doctrine, quoting another analyst:
Other defense analysts warn that an assault on the Chinese mainland carries potentially catastrophic risks and could quickly escalate to nuclear armageddon.
Yes, indeed. I agree.
I'm not so sure I agree that striking China's mainland with conventional weapons results in China striking American with nuclear weapons. Don't our nukes deter China's first use of nukes? If not, we need to seriously reconsider deterrence theory.
But striking Chinese territory surely opens the path to China striking US territory on Guam and US bases in Japan. That is something we have to be careful with. I'd rather have Taiwan strike the mainland as much as possible.
But we can't rule out striking Chinese territory if China uses land-based assets to attack our aircraft carriers.
The most fascinating part of Barnett's piece is the assumption that if combat is joined, we will humiliate China in conventional combat, and that thumping is what will lead to Chinese first use of nukes.
I have a little more respect for China's ability to strike first and inflict serious damage on our forward-deployed forces. In the long run, we can win. But don't disregard China's potential to hit us hard close to their territory when we have to deploy long distances from our territory to reach the theater of war.
Still, let's be careful about those targets on the Chinese mainland.
UPDATE: Defense Industry Daily points to another summary of US-Chinese relations if you really think the Department of Defense is pining for an excuse to build useless weapons rather than responding to a real defense problem:
Congress faces important questions about what sort of relationship the United States should have with China and how the United States should respond to China’s “rise.” After 30 years of fastpaced economic growth, China’s economy is now the second largest in the world after the United States. With economic success, China has developed significant global strategic clout. It is also engaged in an ambitious military modernization drive, including efforts to develop extendedrange power projection capabilities and such advanced weapons as a “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). At home, it continues to suppress all perceived challenges to the Communist Party’s monopoly on power.
We aren't destined to fight China. I'd rather not.
But Chinese capabilities are real and a far cry from fabulous. We'd be wise to keep our powder dry.
