China also will be tempted to hit the American territory of Guam where we are building up a base as we find Okinawa is too close to Chinese military assets.
If America and China go to war over Taiwan, I'd rather it be an air-sea engagement limited to the region of Taiwan and not one that extends to our national territories, which runs the risk of pushing the conflict to all-out conventional war and maybe even nuclear weapons.
Yet a Chinese invasion attempt or even a serious air and sea campaign against Taiwan will use Chinese national territory as an operational launching pad for those military assets. Those targets would need to be hit. And if America does it, China gets a free pass to hit our national territory (and perhaps Japan's territory, too).
But if we fight China in the seas around Taiwan and over Taiwanese air space while Taiwan itself strikes Chinese mainland targets, escalation risks are reduced and maybe a war between America and China can be limited. So this is good news:
Taiwan plans to develop a long-distance precision-guided missile which would be able to strike military bases along China’s southeastern coastline in the event of war, a legislator said Monday....
Lin [NOTE: the legislator] said the missile, along with several other home-made weapons systems such as the Hsiungfeng (Brave Wind) 2E cruise missile, would be used as an effective deterrent should China launch military action against the island.
“In case of war, Taiwan would be able to use the weapon to strike the air-defence and ballistic missile bases deployed along China’s southeastern coastline,” he said.
Well, as a point of order, once shooting starts it is pointless to talk about "deterrent" value. But if Taiwan can carry out the vital tasks of hitting Chinese targets on the mainland (air and missile bases, ports, command and control facilities, transportation choke points, supply depots, etc.) it reduces pressure on America to hit those targets and means that the war is more likely to be one fought over Taiwan alone.
With both America and China having nuclear weapons, that is no small thing.
UPDATE: Mark doesn't think we'll defend Taiwan anyway, so my point is moot. Thanks for the link. But maybe we can keep that view quiet for a couple more years. If the Chinese are unsure of what we'll do, our president doesn't need to be resolute on the issue, right?
