Outside Our Defensive Perimeter?

I try to offer commentary on events, including offering guesses at what will happen. I guessed that we would sell Taiwan the F-16s they want. Even those aren't enough to redress the growing imbalance in the air between China and Taiwan, but it would help. But apparently, I can't get inside the heads of the people in charge of our foreign policy who are filled with the spirits of hope and change. We will deny Taiwan their request for new F-16s:

Bowing to Chinese pressure, the U.S. will deny Taiwan's request for 66 new F-16C/D fighter aircraft, a Taiwan Ministry of National Defense (MND) official said.

We are so disappointed in the United States," he said.

A U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) delegation arrived here last week to deliver the news and offer instead a retrofit package for older F-16A/Bs that includes an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.

Strategy argued for the sale. Even politics argued for the sale (a nice contract to keep production lines open going into a tight election). But a futile hope that we can surrender enough to China to get on their good side trumped both.

So we'll upgrade aging platforms. Which is better than nothing. But they are older platforms and even upgraded they can't last that long. When they go, Taiwan will have virtually no air defenses.

Could Taiwan develop their own advanced fighter industry in the next ten years? I doubt it. Could Taiwan count on the next president to reverse the refusal? Perhaps. But even then Taiwan will have lost valuable time, extending the period when Chinese air strength could overwhelm Taiwan's air defenses. Could Taiwan count on us to defend them? Let's see, we won't sell Taiwan F-16s but we'll actually shoot at the Chinese if they attack Taiwan? I don't know if we will or won't, but if we would shoot, we've told the Chinese we won't. Is this our Dean Acheson moment?

No, Taiwan's real choice forced by this short-sighted decision is to either buckle under to China and move toward being absorbed by Peking or to develop a nuclear deterrent while Taiwan still has enough power in the air to hopefully deter China from invading before Taiwan can deploy a nuclear deterrent. And then declare independence.

If we've tossed Taiwan outside our defense perimeter, Taiwan needs to either enter China's or build their own. And without arms sales from America (nobody else will unless Russia steps up to keep China occupied south rather than looking north), Taiwan's only realistic choice if they want to remain free is to go nuclear.

This is exactly what I expected from "smart diplomacy." Have a nice day.

UPDATE: Or perhaps hubris will save Taiwan?

UPDATE: Hmm. This is interesting. Perhaps we aren't making a bone-headed mistake.