Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Could Good Sense Prevail?

I was stunned to read that we denied Taiwan the opportunity to buy 66 new F-16s. It made no sense in either a national security angle or the political angle for President Obama's reelection prospects.

Today I read that the report is not accurate:

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) has not received any message from the United States stating that it would deny Taiwan the sale of advanced F-16C/D jet fighters, MND spokesman Lo Shao-ho said Monday.

In an article published Aug. 14, the US-based weekly journal Defense News reported that a US Department of Defense delegation arrived in Taiwan last week to deliver the message that it will deny Taiwan's request for 66 new F-16C/D fighter aircraft.

The report said the US would instead offer an upgrade package for older F-16A/Bs that includes an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.

Asked about the report, Lo refused to comment but said the ministry had not received any messages related to the deal. ...

Meanwhile, Christoper Kavanagh, the spokesman for the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto US Embassy, told CNA that "no decision has been made" on the potential arms sale.

Oh, and Vice President Biden is to visit China:

Vice President Joseph R. Biden will not negotiate U.S. arms sales to Taiwan when he visits China this week, White House officials said Monday, declining to comment on a report that the Obama administration has decided against selling new F-16 jets to Taiwan.

“We don’t negotiate these issues with the Chinese,” said Daniel Russel, White House senior director for Asian affairs, during a conference call with reporters Monday.

Interesting timing. So now I'm wondering if we are trying to make life easier for the vice president. Normally, the Chinese would throw a hissy fit over upgrades to Taiwan's older F-16s (especially since we plan to add AESA radar, which in theory can fry cruise missile electronics from quite a distance if focused on them--assuming enough power, which planes may not be able to provide yet). But if the Chinese believe that the upgrades are the consolation prize, they might not pester Biden while he's there about the upgrade, happy that they've stopped the new planes. And if it works, it is all based on press leaks and not official statements. Then later this fall we can approve the sale and deny that we were misleading the Chinese.

My goodness, we might actually be witnessing smart diplomacy here. You never can tell. Selling the F-16s makes so much sense that a flash of diplomatic brilliance actually makes more sense than to assume the report of no sale is true.