To the Shores of Tripoli Again?

The most recent Strategytalk had a gem of a rumor that 10,000 Marines are headed for the Mediterranean.

I can fnd news that a MEU is getting ready to set sail for the region to replace one out there. That would give us the 22nd and 26th MEUs with 4,400 if we hold over the outgoing 26th MEU. We have at least 400 others out there, flown in early to put Marines on an amphibious warfare ship that had left its Marines in Afghanistan before the Libya crisis started. That get's us to half.

We could fly in the rest. I wonder where the nearest Marine Corps' Maritime Prepositioned Force squadron is right now? Each one can support 15,000 Marines for thirty days with all the equipment and supplies they need (until supply lines can be set up). I wonder if the Strategypage rumor means 10,000 more Marines in addition to the 4,800 (or more) we will soon have within range?

I've been writing that I think a reinforced European division or a couple Egyptian divisions (which, to be fair, have to go a lot farther in addition to not being as good) could drive on Tripoli and take it, to turn over to rebels. Ten- to 15-thousand Marines would do the job. I'd rather Europeans take the lead, but one way or the other, Khaddafi needs to go to avoid an American defeat (Khaddafi "must go" said our president).

Who knows, maybe the threat of a Marine invasion on top of the air campiang is just the shock that Libyan loyalists need to start cracking? This would help recreate the Allied Force results when the Serbs cracked under air attack and as American ground forces prepared to go in.

UPDATE: You know, I'm starting to think this is the way to go. Go in with 10-15,000 Marines and as many Europeans as we can drag in. Do it now while opinion polls are supportive of stopping Khaddafi. Screw 1973's limitations. If we fight under those restrictions, we have to hope we get lucky and see Khaddafi's ranking supporters crack and defect. If we don't end this now, we'll go down the road of arms for the rebels, continued air strikes, sending in advisors, and probably in the end send in ground troops anyway--but with American, Arab, and European opinion turned decisively against the war and the rebels so crippled by combat losses that we can't turn anything over to them. Incrementalism doesn't work.

Just imagine if Marines had gone in near Tripoli just after the shock and awe of the air campaign knocked the loyalists back on their heels and the rebels began their race across the coast road west? Well, we can't change history. But we can decide to win this and do what it takes--now.

Better to win a war we shouldn't have started, than to own it by dragging it out with incremental commitment increases designed more to avoid losing than winning, and then lose it--or win after many years of bloody struggle.