For the Win?

Can the Libyan rebels march on Tripoli? They could, but they'll need an army to do so--whether it is their own or one provided by outside powers.

They've have to go through the Sirte region, first. Assuming that Ajdabiya is secured as a jumping off point for a drive west, that is (This briefing slide show indicates the city is in dispute.). If Sirte falls quickly, that would be a very bad sign for the loyalist side. If that happens, most mercenaries will desert rather than fight to the death. The key will be whether remaining loyalist Libyan army units and security forces desert, defect, or hold together.

Then the rebels will be able to drive up the coast road to relieve the siege of Misrata. Then the rebels will get lots of good press as they get welcomed as liberators by throngs of people in the streets. Again, this will pose another gut check for the loyalists who will by this time be limited to the Tripoli area. Do other cities around Tripoli once in revolt but defeated by the loyalists rise up again?

If all goes well, it could be the siege of Tripoli with the rebels doing what Khaddafi hoped he'd be wrapping up now--attacking the rebel headquarters of Benghazi.

Arab and Western special forces--whether military or private contractors--would have a major role in training, planning, logistics (supplies and getting heavy weapons in working order), and even leading the rebels in battle. Spotting for Western warplanes would be a big role.

But this is the lucky option. The rebels need an army to win this civil war quickly, and this happy scenario assumes that the rebels can be whipped into shape over the last month to be enough of an army to scare the loyalists into defecting and enlarging the rebel army with formed units, or at least by defecting. The short term effect of Western warplanes supporting the rebels on the morale of the loyalists could be the key. But if the loyalists hunker down around civilians in the Sirte region and adapt to Western air power, they'll get mostly used to it and cope--especially if American planes pull back to just supporting roles without pulling triggers and the more limited French and British capabilities are the main effort. Then, the rebel army won't be enough to push past Sirte and march on Tripoli.

Actually, the really lucky option is that even an armed rebel rabble approaching Tripoli provokes widespread revolts in cities, and the wholesale defection and desertion of loyalist security forces. But as time goes on, that becomes less likely as the morale shock of Western aerial intervention wears off.

But if we don't get the lucky or astoundingly lucky outcomes, the rebels need more than they have now in terms of ground forces compared to the loyalists. If the rebels can't do the job, a European division of several reinforced brigades (with an American MEU in support to spearhead the landing) landing near Tripoli would be enough to take Tripoli. Or two Egyptian mechanized divisions marching west along the coastal highway could be the army to do the job.

If there is no rebel or pro-rebel army available, this could settle into a stalemate that could have the front line swing between Sirte and Ajdabiya. Then we would need to shift focus to supporting the build up of a rebel army, air defenses, government, and oil exports, to grind out a long war without more than a token Western commitment to a no-fly zone. We'd need to do this whether we support a rebel takeover of the whole country or just a separate country in eastern Libya. That choice depends in part on what the rebels want and what they think is worth fighting for.

And while there is widespread desire to maintin the integrity of the country, with all the complaints about how colonial powers artificially drew African borders and grouped or split up tribes at the whim of those colonial powers, it might be time for African countries to put up or shut up on this issue. If the existing borders and countries are so awful, let Libya divide itself, eh?

Napoleon once said he'd rather have lucky marshals (senior generals) than good ones. I have little hope that it will be more than amateur hour with this White House team, but I do sincerely hope that President Obama is lucky enough to win this war with the paltry resources we have applied to the mission compared to our hoped objective and the naive hopes that our Western allies have the cojones to do the job.

UPDATE: Rebels have advanced from Benghazi to the outskirts of Ajdabiya while rebels inside the city are still resisting the loyalists, according to this story.