Two Sides of the COIN

The Pakistanis are really stepping up and doing damage to the Taliban inside Pakistan. I'm relieved and not a little bit surprised that they are doing this. I know that we paid a big bribe (well, foreign aid) and I know the Pakistanis have finally seen that the Taliban are out to get them, but given the history of Pakistan's failure to fight, I'm still surprised.

We of course, are surging troops in Afghanistan and going on the offensive. I've worried about this since we need the Pakistanis to control their side of the border to make our offensive achieve lasting results--and let us actually turn over security responsibilities to Afghans.

So this email tidbit from Jane's is interesting:

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, arrived in Pakistan on 16 July for talks with senior military commanders, including General Ashfaq Kiyani, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, to discuss the possibility of launching a campaign against Taliban militants on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The visit came as Pakistani officials have increasingly begun expressing their disillusionment with the US strategy in Afghanistan. In recent background briefings, officials have called for the US to step up its military campaign on the Afghan side of the border, after Pakistani troops successfully fought back Taliban militants in Swat

Just as we would worry about Pakistan being a sanctuary for any jihadis we drive off, the Pakistanis worry that any jihadis they drive off will seek sanctuary in Afghanistan.

So we carry out classic counter-insurgency on our side of the border to win hearts and minds to side with us to keep the jihadis out; and the Pakistanis carry out--well, not COIN--but more of a large punitive raid on their side to convince the tribal entities to keep out the jihadis (now weakened because of our joint actions).

This could work. As long as we don't try to create a unified and modern Afghan nation-state.

A confederation of friendly regional governments proudly striding through the 19th century under the light rule of a nominal central government able to arbitrate disputes and put the best troops in the field will do just fine.

UPDATE: Add in the pressure India put on Pakistan to take on the jihadis in their midst for the dual campaign and give some credit to our Predator strikes in supporting the Pakistani offensive.

And then complicate it with Pakistani worries that our offensive in Helmand will drive jihadis into Pakistan's Baluchistan, stirring that pot some more. I guess we have a third side of the COIN.