Most of the budget and political issues were eventually sorted out, and after a long delay, some major elements of Taiwan’s requested modernization program appear to be moving forward: P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, Patriot missile upgrades; and requests for AH-64D attack helicopters, E-2 AWACS planes, and missiles for defense against aircraft, ships, and tanks. These are must-have capabilities when facing a Chinese government that has vowed to take the country by force, and is building an extensive submarine fleet, a large array of ballistic missiles, an upgraded fighter fleet, and a number of amphibious-capable divisions.
Chinese pressure continues to stall some of Taiwan’s important upgrades, including diesel-electric submarines and American fighter jets. One contract that has gone through involves E-2C+ Hawkeye 2000 AWACS planes.
This is kind of interesting. It is good that arms are finally flowing after a decade of confusion. I don't know whether we and the Taiwanese are serious about defending Taiwan or whether the Taiwanese think China is tamed now.
The subs seem to be foundering on getting someone to sell the boats to Taiwan and not based on debates over need. As I've written, we need Taiwan to have subs that can put to sea in wartime if for no other reason than to provide us with deniability when Chinese ships start getting hit with Harpoon missiles. We can always deny--for a while--that our subs our doing the shooting.
The F-16 part is the most interesting part. We are holding up the sales. Since Taiwan really needs more modern fighters capable of taking on the growing Chinese fighter fleet capable of fighting over Taiwan, why are we holding up this capability? We are ready to sell a lot of other crucial items so why not fighters? And why sell airborne warning and control planes if the Taiwanese won't get the fighters to control?
Could it be that we are trying to get Chinese cooperation by delaying a Taiwanese capability that we plan to provide with carrier-based aircraft and aircraft flying from Okinawa and Guam? That is, if the Taiwanese have the AWACS-type planes to sort out the air space, our planes can fly in to provide air defense while the Taiwanese fight over the Taiwan Strait and just off shore, shooting at ships and attacking any invaders who make it to land.
In time, if this is the right way to look at the situation, when the shock of other arms sales wear off, we can sell the F-16s to Taiwan without triggering Chinese reactions.
Of course, this relies on our government quickly deciding to be Taiwan's air force in time of war.
