The North Koreans went and lit off a long-range missile that landed in the Pacific after flying over Japanese air space. No debris appears to have fallen on Japan and no attempts were made to shoot the missile down:
North Korea fired a rocket over Japan on Sunday, defying Washington, Tokyo and others who suspect the launch was cover for a test of its long-range missile technology. President Barack Obama said the move threatens the security of nations "near and far."
Liftoff took place at 11:30 a.m. (0230 GMT) from the coastal Musudan-ri launch pad in northeastern North Korea, the South Korean and U.S. governments said. The multistage rocket hurtled toward the Pacific, reaching Japanese airspace within seven minutes, but no debris appeared to hit its territory, officials in Tokyo said.
Pyongyang claims they successfully launched a satellite. We announced no object entered orbit.
And North Korea continues to hold two American reporters hostage just in case anybody thinks of getting fancy in response.
But although lots of countries are upset, and the UN Security Council will meet, they will just talk. And possibly there will be more sanctions. There will be nothing dramatic.
Which is fine by me. I've always been happy with a strategy that talks and talks while stringing North Korea along to its death bed without provoking it to lash out in a death spasm with its declining strength:
Personally, I simply want the talks to drag on while North Korea implodes. Every month the talks go on, the more North Korea's military machine deteriorates. Each month, North Koreans head toward the point when fear is outweighed by desperation.
Yet the talks keep the North Koreans hoping for a respite to their woes if we hand them the big check again. This hope keeps them from launching a desperate war while they can do some damage and hopefully get a frightenend West to agree to shovel money at them. The West has capitulated before and Pyongyang expects us to break again.
So keep talking and let North Korea walk if they get upset about us bringing up other issues. Every month they have a weaker option of going to war. And if they go to war, all bets are off on regime change. Nobody's stopping at the DMZ this time if the North launches a war.
So we'll talk. Sure, North Korea may think that the keys to the American check book are in their hands with a new administration they think they can roll, but can they? We're already spending like drunken sailors on shore leave. Would our public really care to bail out the Pillsbury Nuke Boy? But counting on a new American government to save them by handing out goodies is probably North Korea's only hope, given that their military is rusting away and their regime rotting from within, as their people lose some fear of the regime as starvation and death stalk the land. North Korea has lost the opportunity to credibly threaten to invade South Korea.
Besides, even if we wanted to open the aid spigot, our allies are in less of a mood to coddle the thugs up north. Japan is in no mood to be under threat by North Korean nuclear missiles. And the South Koreans aren't so committed to detente any more.
So the end result will be more sanctions that will squeeze North Korea just a little more, but nothing dramatic. North Korea will probably make some money selling the now-proven missile (which may have been the real purpose of the test, rather than testing America) to Iran (they observed the launch), but it will be offset by sanctions from the rest of the world.
And we'll talk some more. Which the North Koreans may see as a victory. Which is fine by me. North Korea is getting closer to collapse, it seems.
Five parties will sit close by saying soothing words and bringing little gifts from the lobby shop, while the sixth party fades away, occasionally spitting out angry words. We just have to watch out for a spasm that could hurt one of us even as that signals their final death.
UPDATE: Well, the Iranians won't like the test drive, which this article headlines a "fizzle":
U.S. and South Korean officials claim the entire rocket, including whatever payload it carried, ended up in the ocean after Sunday's launch, but many world leaders fear the launch indicates the capacity to fire a long-range missile.
No satellite reached orbit. So the Iranians may not be in the market to buy the missile. Which means North Korea could be in worse shape than before the missile launch if sanctions are tightened even a bit as a result of this launch.
UPDATE: To be clear, this wasn't a total failure given that it did reach greater ranges than prior tests.
But the basic point remains is that we shouldn't diverge from the general strategy that is weakening North Korea every day. The ultimate objective should be the collapse of the North Korean government. Keep squeezing them and they shall slowly die as their military rots away and makes war no option to reverse their slow death. The war option for North Korea is quickly becoming just the fast death option.
UPDATE: General Cartwright doesn't think the Iranians will be in the market for this year's model:
There's two things that we look at on the North Korean missile. One is their ability to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a weapon of mass destruction, and the second is their desire to potentially proliferate that and sell it around the world.
On the first, the technology they were seeking after the first two failures was the ability to stage; in other words, transition from one stage of boost to the next. They failed. On the idea of proliferation, would you buy from somebody that had failed three times in a row and never been successful?
North Korea didn't do itself any favors with this display. Let's focus on letting them continue to die.
