Putin Chooses Slavery

By wrecking his army in Ukraine, Putin has essentially chosen to be China's vassal. What will China demand to refrain from finishing off Russia?

Russia's war on Ukraine frustrates me even as it outrages me. It frustrates me because it makes sense that America and Russia should be on the same side to contain China. As I wrote early this year:

China would be very happy if Russia ignites a war with America and NATO. Yet that is no reason for NATO and America to let Russia conquer Ukraine. Will Russia cripple its military in a war with NATO? And pin its military in place on its western border for a generation as China gears up to reclaim its lost territories in Russia's Far East? Russia needs to act on its need for NATO's friendship.

It turns out that Russia is crippling its military fighting Ukraine backed by NATO (and others). And making it impossible for NATO to back Russia in the future. Even if Russia somehow manages to regroup and pound Ukraine into submission, a revitalized and newly frightened NATO will pin Russia's best military power in place on Russia's newly expanded western borders. And likely fighting insurgencies.

Which in turn makes it impossible for Russia to turn against China to defend Russia's 19th century Far East territorial gains at China's expense. Leaving formalizing Russia's vassal status under China all but inevitable.

Strategery. 

NOTE: War updates continue at this post.

The Winter War of 2022 Becomes "Normal"

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, much of the Western public's worry was about what it might become. A war between Russia and NATO? Cyber-war? The end of Russian energy exports to Europe? Chemical warfare? Nuclear warfare? But those things didn't happen. Ukraine is hanging on with Western support; and Russia is flailing with bluster failing to compensate for ineptitude. Apparently the West can live with that. Say? What are Harry and Meghan doing now?

And with the boring normality of a war seemingly in stalemate, dangerous delusions will regain strength in the West. Yes, it would be nice to get Russia on the West's side. But the obstacles to that are all on Russia. The West should not be thinking about carving up Ukraine as the price for seeking friendship with Russia. I fear that impulse will grow as time goes on. Already, American public support for aiding Ukraine has eroded.

Ukrainians seem determined to expel the Russians:

Ukrainians, from those in power to the man in the street, are adamant that the country will not cede any territory in order to make Russia end its invasion, and all the suffering and destruction that come with it.

From President Zelensky to opinion polls, the message has been clear. Many are furious that such idea is even being suggested. They are quick to remember that the war started not in February but in 2014, with Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in the east.

If you make a deal with them today, the general view goes, they will come for more later.

But it isn't all up to Ukraine. And even if it was, I don't know if Ukraine could expel Russia from all of the territory Russia has taken since 2014. Ukraine might not have the military power to do all that. And as a democracy, Ukraine may find its people are unwilling to sacrifice more to regain what they lost in 2014. I can easily see Ukrainians saying, "Those people chose Russia in 2014. Let them enjoy being Russian!"

Let's first see if Ukraine can finally stop the Russian drive in the Donbas, which is making slow progress on a narrow front the way I feared the Russians could behind a wall of massive firepower. And then see if Ukraine can drive the Russians back from what they took this year.

I agree with Kissinger that Russia needs an "off ramp" to end its invasion of Ukraine without losing too much prestige so things don't risk getting nuclear should Russia really get shaky from its embarrassing military performance: 

"Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome. Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante. Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself," he said.

He told the World Economic Forum that Russia had been an essential part of Europe for 400 years and had been the guarantor of the European balance of power structure at critical times. European leaders should not lose sight of the longer term relationship, and nor should they risk pushing Russia into a permanent alliance with China.

But an off ramp cannot involve Russia gaining territory from this invasion. There should be no "ideally" about that outcome. The idea that the West is prolonging the crisis by helping Ukraine defend itself from Russia is nonsense and fully in line with Russian propaganda. Russia can end the war at any time by withdrawing from Ukraine. Beginning to lift sanctions after Russia retreats out of what it has taken this year is off ramp enough.

And on top of restoring Ukrainian control to the status quo ante bellum--assuming Ukraine can't win more on the battlefield--negotiations should then be started on the status of the portions of the Donbas that Russia took from Ukraine in 2014.

Still, I'd be open to letting Russia buy--or perhaps rent on a long-term lease--Crimea from Ukraine to settle that issue of importance to Russia and close the books on that dispute. Perhaps Western seizures of Russian assets can be used for that, disguising de facto Russian reparations for Ukraine as the purchase price. It would be some justice if Ukraine regained Crimea, but let's be realistic. Does Ukraine really want a Trojan Horse of pro-Russian Crimeans inside Ukraine's political system now?

I'd certainly like Russia to flip away from China, as Kissinger clearly wants. But not at the price of appeasing Russian demands. The West isn't blowing that opportunity. Russia has blown it with its post-Cold War policy of appeasing China and now its invasion of Ukraine. If Russia is determined to be a vassal state of China, the West can't prevent that by throwing Ukraine to the bear. 

Although God help us, some Westerners will propose exactly that futile policy. No matter what the West "gives" Russia, Russia's rulers will always resent the West for not letting Russia take more.

And  at some level, I feel we have our current problems with Russia because the West was too easy on the Russians after defeating the USSR in the Cold War. Perhaps Russian nukes means that constraint continues. I don't like that reality, but we can't do anything about that. Which means going easy on Russia--again--may just pave the way for the next problem if Russia doesn't pull its collective head from its butt and confront the real threat to Russia in the Far East.

The lesson for Ukraine is that it had best defeat Russia's army in the field in the next two months and drive Russia from its 2022 conquests. Otherwise, Ukraine may face a mobilized Russia and a West suddenly rediscovering the joys of nuanced surrenders. 

UPDATE: Ukraine calls their southern move a "counter-offensive": "In Kherson, the Ukrainian military says it has launched a counter-offensive in a bid to reclaim land taken by Russia, perhaps heralding a new stage of the fighting." We'll see if it is that extensive. If successful, such attacks would first threaten the lines of supply of Russian forces north of the area under attack.

UPDATE: A (the?) Ukrainian defense advisor has walked back expansive territorial objectives: "We need military support in order to achieve our goals, to restore our territorial integrity at least to the level of before 24 February [when Russia invaded Ukraine]." More would be nice. And it is certainly what should happen. But less would be acceptable for the moment.

UPDATE: The Russians don't seem like they are willing to go over to the defensive once they secure all of Luhansk province: "Taking control of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine is an 'unconditional priority' for Russia, the country's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview." The Russians seem to be breaking into Severodonetsk. Does this telegraph Ukraine's decision to pull back and not risk being isolated in the city? 

UPDATE: More on the Russian advance into Severodonetsk. Has Ukraine inflicted more significant losses on the Russians than they've endured holding this front? 

UPDATE: This is Russia's offensive now:

Does an army break in this battle?

UPDATE (Monday): The latest ISW assessment. Russia is slugging its way into Severodonetsk, but has not surrounded the city. The rest of the front is static. 

But Russian officer casualties should reduce the effectiveness of the Russian army. Which might open opportunities for a Ukrainian counter-offensive as Russia thins out the rest of the front to funnel troops into the Severodonetsk front. Which may imply that Ukraine is holding troops out of the front as a reserve that might conduct such a counter-offensive. 

There appears to be Ukrainian partisan activity north of the Severodonetsk salient. 

And Ukraine holds a bridgehead over the Inhulets River on the Kherson front. Which is significant and presents an option for Ukraine to advance east to try to break through Russia's weakened lines.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Unless Ukraine launches a counter-offensive somewhere else soon, Severodonetsk will fall: "Russian troops have gained partial control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Syevyerodonetsk, where intense street-by-street battles continue with thousands of civilians caught in the cross fire in the ruined city and in urgent need of aid."

UPDATE: Germany steps up and: "will allow modern German-made tanks to backfill Soviet-era tanks sent from Greece to Ukraine." Germany has done this with Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland. 

UPDATE: What's going on? "Ukrainian officials are reporting a "shutdown of all communications" in the Russian-occupied southern region of Kherson, Reuters reports." Are Russians trying to prevent Ukrainian partisans from operating or communicating with Ukrainian forces that seem to be trying to counter-attack from the outside? 

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. The key part:

Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Kherson is critical terrain because it is the only area of Ukraine in which Russian forces hold ground on the west bank of the Dnipro River. If Russia is able to retain a strong lodgment in Kherson when fighting stops it will be in a very strong position from which to launch a future invasion. If Ukraine regains Kherson, on the other hand, Ukraine will be in a much stronger position to defend itself against future Russian attack. This strategic calculus should in principle lead Russia to allocate sufficient combat power to hold Kherson. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen instead to concentrate all the forces and resources that can be scraped together in a desperate and bloody push to seize areas of eastern Ukraine that will give him largely symbolic gains. Continuing successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson indicate that Ukraine’s commanders recognize these realities and are taking advantage of the vulnerabilities that Putin’s decisions have created.

These two things, Russian offensive in Donbas and a Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson have long been my greatest worry and greatest hope. Well before Russia's retreat from Kiev.

My greatest worry has largely evaporated. Russia has failed to carry out such a grand encirclement even though it has taken almost all of Luhansk province. And while Russia my yet trap some Ukrainian troops in the Severodonetsk salient, it would be a small win. But it seems likely that Ukraine will pull its troops back before they are cut off.

Meanwhile, Russia is stripping the rest of the southern front for the firepower needed to plow forward in Luhansk. Ukraine, if it has the reserves, could rip Russia's army a new a-hole. Ukraine is attacking on the Kherson front. Let us hope that we don't have a replay of this tragic conversation in 1940:

Churchill asked General Gamelin, "Where is the strategic reserve?" which had saved Paris in the First World War. "There is none", Gamelin replied. 

The Ukrainians have been smart this war. I cannot believe that Ukraine has not built a strategic reserve. Even at the price of asking outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian troops to desperately hold the line in the Donbas.

In other reports, Belarus is giving up stocks of equipment to replenish the Russian army. Which is amazing. How can Russia not have sufficient stocks? Unless Russia is worried Belarus will defect and wants to strip Belarus of equipment. In addition, Ukrainian partisans remain active.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine is clearly pulling back: "Russia is now in control of around 70% of the key eastern city of Severodonetsk, according to the governor of the Luhansk region."

UPDATE: Predictable: "Cracks are appearing in the Western front against Moscow, with America’s European allies increasingly split over whether to keep shipping more powerful weapons to Ukraine, which some of them fear could prolong the conflict and increase its economic fallout." Europeans who hope not to piss of Russia too much should recall some old advice after beginning to defeat Russia. When you start to take Vienna, take Vienna. Defeat Russia. 

UPDATE: Backbones turn to jelly in NATO:

One sign of this is the increasing number of voices demanding that Ukraine make concessions to stop the war. Italy’s “peace plan” will not be the last such effort (“why not give Russia Lake Como,” says Odesa-based Hanna Shelest). Another is the scramble among some European countries (Italy again, also Austria, and notoriously Hungary) to secure Russian energy supplies. Don’t forget Germany’s solipsistic, sophomoric “can violence be fought with violence?” philosophizing.

 These NATO voices will get no credit in Russia for inflicting a small harm on Russia and then stopping.

UPDATE: The latest American arms package for Ukraine. It includes HIMARS rocket systems.

UPDATE: Ukraine says it still holds 20% of Severodonetsk and may try to retain it. Is this defense perhaps holding both ends of the last bridge across the river to block the Russian advance at the river line? But still poised to bug out if necessary?

UPDATE: The United States has carried out offensive and defensive cyberwar in support of Ukraine. Russia is not specified as a target of offensive action, of course. Still, that would have been a good thing to discuss behind closed doors given that deniability is a major advantage of cyber.

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. 

Russian troops claw forward at Severodonetsk. The Russians are trying to avoid having to assault river defenses west of Severodonetsk to continue the advance.

Ukrainian attacks on the Kherson front are close to disrupting Russian lines of supply further north despite Russian attacks on bridges supplying the Ukrainian counter-attacks. Supply problems could make those Russian forces to the north vulnerable to direct attacks.

Russia worries about the potential of Ukrainian partisans in Luhansk province.

Russia seems to have won the battle for Snake Island and is reinforcing it.

Russia is destroying Ukrainian assets that could have been economically useful to it if captured intact.

UPDATE (Thursday): Are there growing cracks in the Western consensus that Russia can exploit?

UPDATE: Interesting: "The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said." Will Ukraine refrain from trying to use them for deep strikes inside Russia?   

UPDATE: Ukraine says it may hang on to its toe-hold in Severodonetsk: "Contradicting earlier statements from officials, General Gromov said that at this point, there was no need for Ukrainian troops to withdraw." At this point.

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. Russia is bleeding their army on the Severodonetsk front and may be too spent to turn to the Donetsk conquest. Russia has problems replacing losses and sustaining morale of what is there. Ukrainian resistance in occupied territory is hurting Russian efforts to exert control. Ukraine is continuing attacks on the Kherson front and promises a bigger attack.

UPDATE (Friday): Speculating on outcomes. I won't pretend to know how this ends. But Ukraine could win, which is a shock to many. Including me. Yet Russia, as I said they could, is using firepower to compensate for poor army quality. But Russia is thus far able to do this only on a narrow front at the Severodonetsk salient.

I fully predicted Russia's military wasn't nearly as good as people thought, and couldn't conquer Ukraine.

What I got wrong was how well Ukraine would fight and NATO's aggressive response once Ukraine didn't collapse. 

Also, I did not imagine that Russia's initial war plan would be so divorced from reality, which provided the opening for Ukraine to do better than I imagined they could. And which bought time for NATO to send weapons.

Given that I consciously named this war after the Soviet-Finland Winter War of 1939-1940, I can't rule out that the casualties Ukraine is inflicting on Russia could deter future Russian invasions even if Russia ends this war with new territory, as happened in 1940. But I wouldn't count on Russia failing to eventually fix some of the problems this war exposed and trying again, even if it takes a decade.

UPDATE: This is interesting recent history of Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but speculating about Russia taking part of Ukraine in the south and east being good enough because "what is left of Ukraine would be little more than an indefensible and economically diminished statelet with no viable future. Furthermore, the Russians would not even need to conquer it all. After all, the costs of trying to take and occupy Western Ukraine ‒ an area whose population has long harbored Russophobe attitudes for generations ‒ would be superior to the benefits, since it would probably lead to a protracted military quagmire and a nasty bloodbath" makes no sense. 

If we're supposed to "understand" Russia's need for a territorial buffer in the west, how are we to explain this defense that Russia doesn't actually want to pay the price to have that buffer? Don't accept a partial Russian conquest of Ukraine by pretending Russia has no more territorial ambitions.

UPDATE: This is true: 

Over the past several weeks, Russian troops have slowly expanded their control of territory in the Donbas, pounding Ukrainian defense forces with artillery bombardments and reducing towns and villages to rubble.

I've said this would work. But note that Russia must do this on a very narrow front. Does Russia have the tube and rocket artillery (and ammunition) for a broad front war?

On the other hand, getting ammunition for Ukraine's Soviet-designed artillery is difficult. America is scouring the world for the rounds and is likely running out of sources willing to sell. And Ukraine's industry doesn't seem capable of producing the amount needed given Russian bombardment.

I wonder if Western manufacturers could switch to making 152mm and 122mm instead of 155mm and 105mm. Or is the solution going to be shifting Ukraine's artillery to the Western weapons. Which means many hundreds of Western guns and lots of ammunition produced at war consumption rates.

UPDATE: Is Putin's health faltering? I've dismissed this because I've seen no proof and because it seems too good to be true. But perhaps I'm wrong. Do we have proof? Still, even if Putin dies or is incapacitated I don't assume it ends the war. Maybe someone who wants peace takes over. Maybe someone who wants to escalate takes over. And maybe someone too weak to do anything other than maintaining the current path takes over. how lucky are we?

UPDATE: The latest ISW update. The Russian clusterfuck continues behind the hammer of massive firepower at the Severodonetsk salient. Russian big talk will be hard to back up in the short run. But Russian electronic warfare--which I thought was a strong suit--seems to be getting in gear. Russian counter-attacks against the Ukrainian counter-attacks on the Kherson front failed. So far there isn't a lot of weight behind the Ukrainian counter-attacks, so it doesn't rise to the level of a counter-offensive, it seems.

UPDATE (Saturday): Ukraine seems to be fighting hard for the small portion of Severodonetsk it still holds.

UPDATE: Russian combat power in Ukraine has plummeted:

Russian forces engaged in the Ukraine offensive are down to just over half the pre-war deployment strength as all sides gird for an extended war of attrition, western officials have said.

If you wonder why Russia's offensive went from a wide Kiev-to-Kherson front down to the narrow Severodonetsk salient. 

Russia is large enough to replace its losses. But Putin is reluctant to mobilize the country to do that with any sense of urgency. Will the peacetime recruiting practice be enough?

I don't think Ukraine is nearly in as bad a shape but I can't really tell for sure from publicly available information. I suspect Ukraine is building a strategic reserve. But I don't know.

UPDATE: The hubris of Macron in thinking we can calibrate just enough defeat for Russia is amazing: 

Macron has again warned today against humiliating Russia, after urging the West in May not to give in to "the temptation of humiliation, nor the spirit of revenge". Draghi has suggested Europe wants "some credible negotiations".

We need to focus on helping Ukraine defeat Russia. Trying to calibrate just enough Russian defeat--as if we know what that is--risks Ukraine losing. And even if we inflict a small harm on Russia, it risks Russia's military leadership developing a "stabbed in the back" theory for their non-humiliating retreat, and plotting revenge for another generation.

Russia's army needs to be crushed in battle. Russia's nukes will prevent any temptation to pursue it back through Russia. Let the spirit of revenge be tamped down by a promise of ending sanctions for real peace and respect for Ukrainian territorial integrity.

And once again we see why French leaders have a reputation for being cheese-eating surrender monkeys. 

UPDATE: Interesting:

Ukraine said its forces had recaptured 20 percent of the territory they had lost in the city of Syevyerodonetsk, the focus of a Russian offensive to take the eastern Donbas region, and could hold it for up to two weeks as fighting continued on June 4.

Is Ukraine trying to hold there for two weeks to keep Russia's attention on Severodonetsk until Ukraine can launch a counter-offensive? Probably at Kherson but perhaps closer to the Donbas.

I mean, holding just to stall the Russian drive is useful all by itself. And withdrawing to the portion of Severodonetsk closest to the river probably means only maneuver units are on the east bank of the river while harder-to-move support units are on the west bank. So pulling out the frontline units if necessary would be easier even if there is no bridge.

UPDATE: Apparently to avoid Ukrainian air defenses, Russian attack helicopters are firing unguided rockets while angled up to give them a ballistic arc. That extends range but makes them like vehicle-mounted unguided and inaccurate rocket artillery. Which makes the helicopters expensive artillery. But cheaper than losing helicopters, I guess.

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Ukraine is more aggressive around the Severodonetsk salient and appears more confident of holding the line for now, having absorbed a big push from the Russians who thinned the rest of the front to grind forward there. Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk may have hit Chechen units hard in a counter-attack. The Kherson front was static. Ukrainian partisan threats in the south appear to be putting more stress on the Russian occupiers.

UPDATE (Sunday): It seems like the BBC has ended its blog-style live updates of the war. I guess the war is normal background noise now. How's that Platinum Jubilee going? [UPDATE: I stand corrected. But it does seem downgraded.]

UPDATE: Don't doubt Russia has learned some things after their disastrous start to this war:

Since then, the Russian military has learned and adapted, Kostenko explained.

“They have started setting up defensive positions; they have begun to use their equipment better; they are incorporating artillery. They are learning and it has become a more difficult fight for us,” he added.

Russia’s military has increased its use of tactical air to support its creeping advance in the Donbas, Britain’s Defense Ministry said in its daily intelligence bulletin on June 4.

Weaknesses remain, of course. The question is whether the disastrous start has crippled the ability of a somewhat smarter Russian military to achieve a victory.

UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked at the Severodonetsk salient and on the Kherson front. Ukrainian counter-attacks in the salient recaptured some ground while Ukraine resumed attacks near Kharkiv. The fact that Ukraine could retake ground at the point of Russia's main effort seems to indicate how much the Russian army has been shredded in combat. Russia launched missiles at Kiev for the first time in a month. Another Russian general was killed.

NOTE: War coverage continues on this post.

Weekend Data Dump

We remember those who died in uniform this Memorial Day.

A complete lack of any kind of sense of urgency to do better. I'm hoping that assessment doesn't apply to America.

Are aerial dog fights over? We thought that before and were wrong. But that assumption drove the design of the F-35. The assumption may be correct for now. Although it will be a long time before non-stealth planes are the majority of even our fleet. And the chaos of war probably means it will still happen. (But will it be significant?) Still, even if true for the big planes, dog fights might continue with small drones in the "brown skies" over front-line small combat units, as I explored in Army magazine.

Because of natural gas and other resources: "At least 24 countries have sent soldiers to support Mozambique in its fight against insurgents in northern Cabo Delgado province." I predict corrupt Mozambique will be worse off as a result of their riches.

As I've said, I'm conflicted over military orders requiring Covid vaccines. And a Navy separation board has agreed with one aspect of my concern: the order was not a lawful order. 

Famine? I'm sure our government will make a major effort to identify the correct pronoun for each and every starving or hungry human. Via Instapundit.

Huh: "Iran's hard-line president vowed revenge on Monday over the killing of a senior Revolutionary Guard member gunned down in the heart of Tehran the day before, a still-mysterious attack on the country's powerful paramilitary force." Is the killing a one off or the tip of the iceberg of intent and capabilities? Even if the former, could such killings be a spark that ignites the latter?

Iran relies on surface-to-surface missiles to make up for a weak conventional army. Is Iran learning lessons from Russia's missile use against Ukraine? One lesson should be that an enemy would have no problem bombing a much smaller Iran to retaliate and go after Iran's missiles. Still, they could damage Gulf Arab oil facilities before Iran' oil industry is destroyed.

Russians are feeling the pain of war. And that doesn't count knowledge of the deaths of their sons in the war.

I mentioned this good news last week, I think: "Ukraine has sown crops on 11.84 million hectares, or 82.2% of the 14.4-million-hectare area planned for this spring[.]" Ukraine's Black Sea ports are captured or blocked. But the harvests had to be sent by rail to those ports. Why can't railroads send crops to other ports outside of Ukraine? This would be a major change to patterns and so difficult to carry out. And I assume rail width changes at the border. But shouldn't this be a priority? Tip to Instapundit.

Too many government officials believe only doing the jobs they are paid to do is insufficient for their giant brains and vast skill sets. Via Instapundit.

Just more cannon fodder to defend the castles of the ruling elites.

I'll only really worry when it starts to return to Earth. Via Instapundit.

I admit I don't know what it is. But I know I want Guam to have it.

Oh FFS, the dramatic increase in Navy desertion is because the sailors dislike their work and so the Navy should make it easier to get out? Bad senior leadership is the root cause.

I know it is all the rage, but I actually assume Russia did it.

The opposite of smart bombs: "Technicians linked to the Syrian military’s infamous barrel bombs that have wreaked devastation across much of the country have been deployed to Russia to help potentially prepare for a similar campaign in the Ukraine war, European officials believe." Is this from the desire for terror or a lack of conventional bombs? I'm guessing former, but who knows? Although Ukrainian air defenses might make Russian losses in helicopters too high to endure. Via Instapundit.

Last week I mentioned that Russia shoveled some BS, with a promise to create new units to confront Finland and Sweden who are joining NATO. Remember, 7 years ago the Russians created armies to pose invasion threats in the west. Yet today Russia had problems coordinating multiple battalion tactical groups--and seems to be going down to combined arms companies. So, yeah, not getting worked up.

Good Lord, is Putin carrying out a massive slave raid on Ukraine? "Russia has forcibly taken 1.4 million Ukrainians to its territory, Kyiv's ombudsman for human rights Lyudmyla Denisova has said, according to the Interfax news agency."

Would an international naval force escort grain ships from Odessa to the Mediterranean Sea?

Iran has problems. But Iran has hope.  

This certainly has military potential. But could it repel boarders?

Yes, I'd like a sense of urgency there: "The Defense Department of Defense has dithered as China builds ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles to attack Guam, America’s most important military base in the western Pacific."

The B-21 seems to be progressing just fine. It sure looks like a B-2. The B-21 looks like the B-2. Is it basically a modernized B-2? So a B-2.1? Air power is only a partial lane for me and I don't follow the B-21 issue that closely. So my comment is quite possibly way off base.

Blaming children is just Science! you haters.

Just when you think standard parliamentary systems produce nutball tiny parties that can wield tremendous influence, take a look at how Australia does it. As we criticize our Congressional system, remember it can always be worse. Some places in America do this sort of thing. God help us if it goes national.

The changing character of combined arms. A very interesting article. Combined arms rule despite changes in its character. I don't seek silver bullet weapons that win battles by themselves. Still, are massed precision missile salvos and defending against them the way to define future warfare? What happens when the precision missiles run out? Wargaming and experimentation is the way to evaluate the way forward. As long as it isn't pseudo-science. Do read it all.

Why is the FDA trying to starve American babies? The rules and the bureaucracy that enforce them are more important than the people the rules and organization are theoretically supposed to protect.

North Korea wants attention.

The woke socks in the jackboots, eh? Trudeau's ruthless suppression of protesters was shocking to me. I used to love visiting Canada. I don't know if I can go back with a clean conscience while this state of affairs continues. Via Instapundit.

"Find someone who loves you like John Kerry loves the Iran nuclear deal." Well sure. He's a reprehensible man.

I wonder if Russia's practice of having its troops wear white arm and leg bands to distinguish them from Ukrainian troops will backfire by essentially equipping every soldier with a white flag to surrender.

Xi had to destroy the economy in order to save the Chinese Communist Party? Maintaining CCP rule is the one one and only job. All else is secondary. Tip to Instapundit.

The Navy is considering donating 9 Littoral Combat Ships to South American navies. Why not first experiment with them as APDs to move Marine Littoral Regiment troops around the Pacific?

It's this kind of Russian attitude that gets me to momentarily want to grind Russia into dust: "Sergei Lavrov accused Western countries of espousing 'Russophobia' since Moscow launched its 'special military operation' in Ukraine, which is how the Kremlin defines its invasion." #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

We're from the government and we're here to ... [checks notes] ... make things worse. Tip to Instapundit.

Regulations are a tax. And Biden added a lot. Via Instapundit.

The government shoveled refugees into planes at Kabul to pad numbers to pretend the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle was a glorious success. But who did we get out of Afghanistan? The government won't release information to answer that. Tip to Instapundit.

The view from China. Can Xi Jinping ride his record to a third term (and beyond, with even more power)? Remember, prosperity hasn't pushed China to abandon CCP autocratic rule--yet.

The quiet battle over high-tech Western components in Russian weapons.

If we are counting on our submarine force to be the last bastion of institutional competence while the rest of the Navy gets its shit together, we'd best pray the Chinese navy isn't nearly as good as its shiny ships portray: "More than two years of lax oversight from leadership on one of the U.S. Navy’s most powerful submarines ultimately led to the grounding of the attack boat on an uncharted, underwater seamount in the South China Sea, according to an investigation into the Oct. 2 incident." This was in one of our elite submarines. And part of the problem was over-using the boat. This is another example of  a broad Navy problem.

Is Russia ripe for a coup? Who knows? But if so, a replacement might want peace or a replacement might want to escalate and/or mobilize to defeat Ukraine. Would Putin's personally loyal National Guard fight for him? It certainly has an advantage because the army and airborne forces are committed to the war in Ukraine and have been decimated and demoralized. But then again, maybe the National Guard doesn't want to share the same fate. I don't pin much hope on a coup resolving this war to our satisfaction.

We're from the government and we're here to help.

Is the price of Turkey allowing Sweden and Finland into NATO the alliance's silence on this anti-Kurd operation? "Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday Ankara would soon launch new military operations along its southern borders to create 30-km deep safe zones to combat terrorist threats from these regions."

To the shores of A2/AD outposts to give the PLAN a taste of its own medicine. 

I'm no expert, but is the utter failure more than two years after the Xi Jinping Virus pandemic hit the world of widespread vaccination to stop the virus because models rely on actual "vaccines" that prevent sickness? I don't get caught up in definitions wars, but our "vaccines" for Covid-19 aren't really traditional vaccines like the one for Polio. Has that simple fact confused us? I honestly don't know. But something is really flawed in our science on this.

Oh? "But as the Army continues reworking its force structure and doctrine in preparation for a potential large-scale conflict with an adversary like Russia, China or Iran, air cavalry doctrine and units are coming back into vogue." I have my doubts. But big, if true, of course. Perhaps integrated drones and long-range fires will enable the helicopters to achieve their missions and survive.

Rebuilding America's strategic minerals stockpile.

Russia's demographic decline. Is it reversible? Does it doom Russia to decline? And even if the answer to the first is "yes" or the latter is "no", if Russian rulers believe the answers are the reverse does it mean Russia will try to take people by invading countries to grow?

I basically don't recycle because I figured it was just an effort to make me feel guilty and to let some people who recycle feel superior to me. So bite me. Tip to Instapundit.

A good sign in the Middle East: "Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, visited Israel this week, a sign that Israel and Turkey may be on a path to reconciliation, after a decade of antagonism. However, Jerusalem has made it clear to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the expulsion of Hamas leaders from Turkish soil is a prerequisite for closer ties." Is this driven by mutual worry about Iran? Whatever the reason, it would be nice if Turkey was no longer NATO's problem child. But with Erdogan still in charge, I want to be careful about reconciliation.

A Team of Morons.

America's birth rate edged up, the first increase in 7 years. Good. But one year is not a trend.

But somehow neither of them are inciting riots. Fascinating.

Artillery retains its title of king of battle in Ukraine.

Are aubrites remnants of mercury's outer layers? Tip to Instapundit.

The jihadi terror threat to America continues.

Libya is a failed state: "The clear lesson here is that someone will have to intervene to prevent the Islamic terrorists from gaining too much control over the country, or simply to stop the violence before the economy (oil industry) is destroyed. At the moment no one is stepping forward to intervene, mainly because it is an expensive and thankless job."

There are lessons for China and Russia from Putin's flailing invasion of Ukraine. What will Putin and Xi learn?

Tainted moral authority. 

China prepares to go to war against Starlink: "China must acquire the capability to track, monitor, and, if required, kill all Starlink satellites in orbit around the Earth, reported SCMP, citing a study published last month." Waging war against a private company? Interesting. Has China considered that if Starlink has thousands of disrupted satellites in orbit that a significant number may be maneuverable and useful only on anti-satellite weapons to counter-attack Chinese space assets?

Navy sailor morale is shaky. So this makes sense in what alternative world? "The service has now approved 1,074 separations for sailors who will not get vaccinated against COVID-19 and do not have a waiver, according to the sea service’s weekly update." Getting rid of sailors who may be refusing to obey an unlawful order. Makes perfect sense.

The big guns of the Winter War of 2022. Ukraine started with plenty. So I assume Western guns are a big deal because of barrel wear and combat losses.

Well there's your problem right there! "In a country with a functioning media system, this would have been a huge story." Lock her up. And until then, ban her from social media platforms. Hasn't she done enough damage?

Well I'll be darned, there are neo-Nazis fighting in Ukraine.

The Week in Pictures. 

Using an unknown number of suicide quadcopter drones, a "drone strike this week targeted a highly sensitive military site outside Tehran where Iran develops missile, nuclear and drone technology, according to three Iranians with knowledge of the attack and to a U.S. official." The target was at Parchin. The likely attacker rhymes with Sizreal.

It's a damned shame Seth Smith wasn't important to any of the people who decide what is and isn't a subject for a "national conversation." Tip to Instapundit.

There is a civil war over the mission of the Marine Corps: "The war is over Berger’s decision to overhaul the Corps to function as an adjunct of the Navy, focused primarily on anti-shipping operations against China." I'm not sure why there needs to be one. Let Pacific Marines support the Navy and let the Atlantic Marines retain the combined arms ground combat capabilities being abandoned in the Pacific.

The Army signed a contract to replace Stinger air defense missiles sent to Ukraine--by 2026. This is part of the $40+ billion package for Ukraine recently signed. Only part is for Ukraine directly.

To be fair, Kissinger plied his diplomatic trade in the era when our elites believed their job was to manage America's inevitable decline without too much damage: "In both [the Ukraine and Taiwan] cases, Kissinger believes it is in Washington’s interest to accommodate its adversary. He’s arguing that America’s utmost concern should be global stability, which requires accommodating the interests of nations that want to shift the regional balance of power. In other words, the stability of the former Soviet Union, including the political survival of Putin, will stabilize the region and increase global stability. Likewise, ceding Taiwan to China would stabilize the Western Pacific and increase global stability." Kissinger's foundational belief was wrong then and wrong now.

We should be disturbed by this Moqtada al-Sadr-backed law: "The Biden administration says it is 'deeply disturbed' by a new Iraqi law that criminalizes a range of 'normalization' interactions with Israel." The battle against Iran inside Iraq continues.

At this point China's "Zero Covid" cure is worse than the disease: "[The West shows the virus can be managed.] But the Chinese government insists on maintaining policies that are unsustainable and have little grounding in science. In doing so, it has shown an increasing willingness to put China’s economy, and even its social stability, at risk." What do you expect from dictatorial control freaks? So much for "reasonably enlightened" rulers, eh? Couldn't happen to a nicer group of evil communist bastards. May the Chinese Communist Party pay a steep price for this assault on their subjects.

I watched the Ricky Gervais comedy special on Netflix. Honestly, it wasn't that good. It perhaps suffered from his time spent explaining Comedy 101 and reassuring the audience he wasn't a hater. Still, the willingness of Netflix to stiff-arm the woke Red Guards pulled Netflix back from the cusp of deciding my money is best spent elsewhere.

We're from the government and we're here to ... [checks notes] ... burn this whole place down. Via Instapundit.

This is a welcome idea for defending NATO: "There is increasing discussion of 'multinationality', of joint training and learning how to operate together." Although joint training and knowing how to operate together should have been an ongoing feature of the alliance.

Poland--long occupied by the Russians both before and after the Bolshevik Revolution--is leaning forward on helping Ukraine defeat Russia. With both Belarus and Ukraine under Russian control, Poland would get higher on Putin's list of imperial territory to recover.

I find this developing NATO attitude in the wake of Russia's initial stumbles in Ukraine dangerous: "the old paradigm used to be that NATO would mobilise in event of a crisis. The emerging one is to strengthen national armed forces to be prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory." Don't count on Russia being this awful in the future. NATO could pay a heavy price with that emerging paradigm.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I give 'em cat scratch meming. Cat scratch meming. They got it bad scratch meming. Cat scratch meming.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Practicing How To Get Us

It isn't paranoia to think China is out to get us when China is out to get us.

Practicing doesn't mean China can do it, but it is clear China wants to engineer a multi-port Pearl Harbor assault:

China has been honing its ship-killing skills for potential future conflicts on new targets in a remote desert, according to new satellite photos reviewed by USNI News. New analysis shows the People’s Liberation Army is testing the ability to hit ships in port with long-range ballistic missiles.

Since USNI News reported China has been building aircraft carrier targets in the Takmalakan Desert, other target sites have emerged forming a string of large-scale target ranges running along the eastern edge of the desert, according to new satellite photos. Several of these are naval and two have layouts that appear to be modeled on ships in port.

Huh. I've been derided for thinking the Navy could be vulnerable to a modern Pearl Harbor-style strike. As reactions to this post revealed.

But I think it is far worse than a new Pearl Harbor. I worry about a global Pearl Harbor:

America's fleet--despite its problems--is probably still superior to the Chinese navy despite its new car smell. But America relies on reinforcing its outnumbered and outgunned ships and allied navies in the western Pacific with American ships from around the globe. What if conventional hypersonic space weapons are China's method of crippling those reinforcements?

I'm not paranoid. I'm imaginative.

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: Related information:

Over the last five years several similar missile testing sites were discovered in the vast desert areas of western China. Some of these test targets portrayed air bases or even larger targets like naval or army supply depots as well as harbors where American warships are regularly found. China was seeking a way to carry out another Pearl Harbor type attack and they appear to have found it.

I guess we need to review the Chinese kill chain.

UPDATE: Yes. Yes they are.

NOTE: War coverage continues as this post.

EU Dreams of Imperial Glory are Harder to Kill Than Rasputin

The European Union apparatchiki remain frustrated that it can't simply order the EU member states to do what they want. But they keep trying. And Macron is their current champion.

Macron, the champion for the EU imperial state,  is chagrined to see Europeans looking to NATO as Russia destroys peace in Europe: 

Reports of Nato’s brain death appear to have been exaggerated. It remains to be seen how a newly dominant Macron fits its Lazarus-like recovery into his vision for Europe.

While a crisis is perfect for expanding EU powers, a war in Europe is a different matter. Then results matter. Hence NATO is revived. 

Sure, Macron thought he lucked out when Germany's Merkel stepped out of the way, so Macron probably thinks Germany is his to drive. We'll see if newly vigorous (and alarmed) Germany wants to add its new military power to the EU or to NATO. 

Without the Germans in the EU defense project and with Russia obviously in need of being kept out of Europe, I think Macron will have to work much harder to destroy America-dominated (with a large assist from Britain) NATO and pave the way for the EU empire. 

Never doubt Macron's EU vision is a threat to America--and to Europeans.

NOTE: War coverage continues as this post.

Putin Teaches Europeans a Lesson

Putin claimed NATO was such a threat that he had to conquer Ukraine to keep it from being a platform for a NATO invasion. Russia screwed the pooch so badly in the first couple months that NATO decided to rearm--even Germany!--and neutrals have gotten the message not to be the last one outside of NATO's protection.

The Pentagon spokesman said Russia doesn't have a veto over Sweden and Finland joining NATO. The Russians have long wanted that power: 

The proto-thugs in Moscow actually have the nerve to be upset that joining NATO has become fairly popular amongst the formerly Soviet satellite nations and even parts of the old Soviet Union. Instead of wondering why the tender loving attention of Mother Russia scares the crap out of these people eager to join NATO, the Russians are busy whining and blustering even as their military continues to rot and their economy enjoys a temporary oil-fueled bubble that will leave Russia like any other Third World oil exporter--poorer and unfree.

That was my assessment in 2008. Before Russia invaded Georgia. It has taken time for Russia to finally provoke a reaction, and now Russia has with its broad invasion of Ukraine and serial nuclear threats.

So the European neutrals are now choosing sides:

Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has had the opposite effect of his desire to divide Europe. Former neutrals – Finland, Sweden, Austria and Switzerland – are evaluating their traditional non-alignment policy. Ireland might change, too, shifting from its longstanding "Neither King nor Kaiser" attitude that stretches back to the foundation of the Republic. And not only Ukraine, but Moldova as well as a clear popular majority in Belarus, want to join the European Union to institutionalise security cooperation.

Well, Russia invaded Ukraine and in one operation proved:

a) Russia could come for them if they remain isolated, and nobody wants to be the next Ukraine fighting alone with nothing but NATO logistics and intelligence support; and

b) Russia is too weak to bully neutrals into staying neutral. Their post-Georgia military reforms proved to be hollow.

I bet Lukashenko is regretting the Anschluss a year ago with Russia. How long before Belarus pushes Russia out?

Honestly, Russia spewed BS about the fake NATO threat so long that Putin started to believe it. 

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

NOTE: War coverage continues as this post.

Crisis and Opportunity in Asia

Is Russia's war on Ukraine making China less likely to invade Taiwan by raising the prospect of failure?  That would be a crisis for China's policy. But Russia should really worry that crisis is real, opening up an opportunity for China.

It would be nice if this is true:

“Even without a U.S. military response, I seriously question the [Chinese military’s current] ability to seize and then hold the island,” Ralph Cossa, president emeritus of the Pacific Forum think tank in Hawaii, recently told Stars and Stripes in an email.

“Especially if the rest of the world responded similarly to how it has responded to [Russia’s invasion of Ukraine], with massive amounts of military aid and equipment and severe political and economic consequences for the attacker,” he said. 

Would the rest of the world punish the trade giant China the way it has punished Russia? And remember, "the world" isn't punishing Russia. The West is. And we'll see how long the West can manage that.

Does American resolve--and weapons effectiveness--displayed in Ukraine dissuade China? Almost certainly it gives China pause. But China's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities--lots of anti-ship and air defense missiles--are being built on the premise that America will intervene. And then there is China's large and growing navy.

But if Cossa's premise is right, Russia has to worry about getting bogged down in a war with Ukraine. Russia's faltering war may make China worry about fighting America over Taiwan. But it may also be a reality check for China's view of Russia's usefulness:

Russia and China have always been frenemies with benefits rather than allies. Xi Jinping has to decide just what the Hell the benefits are with Russia flailing in Ukraine. 

Right now, Putin is seemingly demonstrating that a revitalized NATO could contain and defeat Russia, allowing America to focus on China. All Russia might do is drag China into a war with America and its allies before Xi thinks China is ready.

Does China really want Russia's delusions of grandeur to be an anchor and liability like Mussolini was to Hitler?

Russia thought appeasing China and pointing China at Taiwan--and hence America--would preserve Russia's Far East from Chinese territorial claims. Russia is undoing all that work by wrecking their military and reputation in Ukraine.

Although I will disagree with this comforting cost analysis argument:

But occupying the self-ruling democracy wouldn’t make China much stronger, according to Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities and Visiting Professor at Brown University.

“They would be a couple of hundred miles farther east and the Pacific is thousands of miles wide,” he told Stars and Stripes by phone Saturday. 

A long journey begins with the first step, and all that. And taking Taiwan pops the cork in the bottle, breaking the line of outposts that pen China's navy in.

And will America's failure to defend Taiwan strengthen or weaken America's chain of bilateral alliances that hold off China? 

Taiwan is the most core of China's core interests, an objective that drives Chinese force modernization. But preserving the Chinese Communist Party monopoly on political power in China is the highest priority.

Perhaps Russia will convince Xi Jinping that China's frenemy with benefits has but one last benefit--being too weak to defend the land that Russia took from China in the 19th century. Heck, will Putin shatter the Russian empire and make it easy for China to take control of that Far East territory? Or even just unofficially dominate it with an eye to future annexation?

A short and glorious war against a wounded and declining power might be safer for Xi to announce China's place in the world than risking war with America.

Is that what Putin's war on Ukraine will achieve?

NOTE: War coverage continues as this post.