By wrecking his army in Ukraine, Putin has essentially chosen to be China's vassal. What will China demand to refrain from finishing off Russia?
Russia's war on Ukraine frustrates me even as it outrages me. It frustrates me because it makes sense that America and Russia should be on the same side to contain China. As I wrote early this year:
China would be very happy if Russia ignites a war with America and NATO. Yet that is no reason for NATO and America to let Russia conquer Ukraine. Will Russia cripple its military in a war with NATO? And pin its military in place on its western border for a generation as China gears up to reclaim its lost territories in Russia's Far East? Russia needs to act on its need for NATO's friendship.
It turns out that Russia is crippling its military fighting Ukraine
backed by NATO (and others). And making it impossible for NATO to back
Russia in the future. Even if Russia somehow manages to regroup and pound Ukraine into submission, a revitalized and newly frightened NATO will pin Russia's best military power in place on Russia's newly expanded western borders. And likely fighting insurgencies.
Which in turn makes it impossible for Russia to turn against China to defend Russia's 19th century Far East territorial gains at China's expense. Leaving formalizing Russia's vassal status under China all but inevitable.
Strategery.
NOTE: War updates continue at this post.
