Are Iranians who aren't nutballs restraining Iran's nuclear program?
Twenty years ago, Western nations began predicting that Iran would have a nuclear bomb within a few years. None of these predictions came true and Iran seemed more intent on maintaining the illusion that they were going to test their first nuclear device any time now. ...
Many IRGC members truly believe they are on a Mission From God and not bound by tradition or reality. Iran won’t official admit this but it is common knowledge inside Iran and even within the IRGC. Iran does not want to build a bomb unless they can be sure it’s use will be rational and not subject to unpredictable whims of religious fanatics.
I recently noted my puzzlement that Iran hasn't managed to go nuclear after all this time:
Does Iran have nuclear weapons? Well, either that is true or it is more difficult than we imagine for Iran to develop nukes.
I've long noted Iran has North Korea, which is totally outside of the weak safeguards of the nuclear deal, for contracted nuclear work.
And I've argued that Iran would want nuclear missiles before it reveals it can make nukes. Under the shield of the deal, Iran may "just" be perfecting the missile delivery systems and indigenous production process now. That might be the best explanation for what we see rather than assuming Iran has nuclear weapons already.
Actually, a third option is that Iran knows it doesn't need nukes for defense and thinks staying--or appearing to be--on the cusp of nukes is more profitable. And a deal may be more of a deterrent to being attacked than actual nukes.
After all, Iran has apparently been on the cusp of nukes for a long time. Something isn't as it seems.
The North Koreans have shown far more progress with far fewer resources than Iran has. Are the Iranians that inept by comparison?
Are the less nutball Iranians (the "moderates") really too afraid of what the nutballs might do with them to build nukes?
If so, is it the height of stupidity for Westerners to bid up the price of "persuading" Iran to do what the Iranian leadership wants to do anyway?
