Thursday, April 01, 2021

If China Goes It Alone, Who Gets Left Behind?

China wants to be more self reliant over the next 5 years. Is this geared as much against Russia as it is against America?

China's five-year plan is different now:

China will focus on implementing its “dual-circulation strategy,” according to which it will reduce its reliance on external demand, in favor of increased self-reliance. While the government will continue to emphasize exports, it will also increase import substitution and introduce supply-chain safeguards, especially where American firms are closely involved. Most important, China plans to boost domestic consumption of the goods it produces. National-security concerns undoubtedly lie at the heart of this strategy.

I wonder if China wants to free itself from any reliance on Russian technology as the major impetus for this self-reliance push.

Yes, reducing foreign trade reliance lowers China's trade route vulnerability and reduces the burden on their navy to keep sea lines of communication open. But Russia is a much closer threat even if Russia is much weaker than America. Which is an opportunity for China, you must admit.

I wonder because the Chinese accepted a five-year extension of a treaty that, in part, mutes China's territorial claims against Russia:

The Russian-Chinese treaty of 2001 that muted Chinese claims was set to expire this year. The treaty also required Russia to provide military technology to China. Hence the Chinese propaganda offensive on territorial claims to push Russia to share missile defense technology.

You recall the Chinese claims, right? ...  

Does China seem like the kind of country that just lets old territorial claims die? And for China, how old is the 19th century, really?

But rather than let the treaty expire, at the end of last year the treaty was extended 5 years[.]

And did I mention Central Asia?

Could be a coincidence. I am just connecting a couple dots, after all.