Ukraine and Turkey discussed tensions in the Donbas at a pretty high level. What's up with that?
Huh:
The presidents of Ukraine and Turkey stressed the importance of Ukraine's territorial integrity, the de-escalation of tensions in eastern Ukraine and security in the Black Sea following a meeting Saturday in Istanbul.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Turkey came amid renewed tensions in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists have been fighting since 2014. Russia has reinforced its troops along the border and warned Ukraine against trying to retake separatist-controlled territory. Kyiv rejects the claim that it is preparing for an offensive.
If this was a game, I'd wonder if Ukraine and Turkey were going to try to shove Russia back. Could that be the real purpose of such a high-level meeting rather than simple "let's all be calm here" diplomacy?
You can't rule out the possibility that Russia's claims of a possible Ukrainian offensive are real. I haven't seen any news of Ukrainian intentions like that. But I can't say for sure, can I?
Although if it is true that Putin has been refusing Zelenskyy's phone calls for three weeks a Russian intention to attack is far more likely. The Ukrainians claim 42,000 troops are massed in Crimea and the same amount is on the border of eastern Ukraine. That might indicate a Russian link-up offensive along the coast of the Sea of Azov.
Although this says "as many as 20,000" Russian troops are on the border with Ukraine. And does that mean Crimea, too, or just the Donbas region? Also, this article refutes the notion that Ukraine is massing troops for an offensive.
Ukraine would be justified in attacking, of course, if Ukraine wants their land back that Russia took in 2014. But maybe Ukraine isn't focused on the Dombas where there is a ceasefire.
Given that Russia took pro-Russian areas of the eastern Donbas, I would not want that territory and 20th century industry back from Russia if I was in charge of Ukraine. I've lived without the assets and people since 2014. Let Russia enjoy it and let the people who live their enjoy their pro-Russian sentiment.
But making Russia think I wanted it back would be nice.
I'd really want Crimea back. And a coalition with Turkey would help with that.
Turkey is already at war with Russia in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. By proxy, for the most part. But this is a dramatic change from what seemed like a budding friendship between autocrats. Russia's pressure on Ukraine serves to drive America and Turkey back together as well as push Turkey to back Ukraine.
Could Ukraine launch an offensive through the isthmus to liberate Crimea? Against 40,000 troops? Although a lot of that total would be support troops and non-army troops manning Russia's Crimea bases.
Could Ukraine block the bridge to Russia at the Kerch Strait?
Could Ukraine absorb and contain any Russian offensive from the east while it goes for Sevastopol?
And could Turkey send its fleet to shield Ukraine's coast from Russian attack and block sea lines of supply to Crimea?
Could Russia block the Turkish Straits to Russian ships for the duration of the war?
Would Turkey count on NATO membership to nullify Russia's nuclear threat?
Ukraine might get Crimea back even if it loses some ground in the east.
Turkey would then get a Russia pushed back from its Battlestar Crimea outpost. Better a weak Ukraine dominating the Black Sea coast than Russia, from Turkey's point of view.
And Turkey might also get an officially recognized role in Crimea's Tatars, a remnant of Turkey's past control of the peninsula.
Still, an offensive by Ukraine through the isthmus surely couldn't be easy unless the Russians have failed to fortify that neck. I have no idea what that status is.
Would Turkey be more active and land troops south of the isthmus to help the Ukrainians? That seems unlikely to me. But Sultan Erdogan might want to roll the dice.
If this was a game, of course. Rather than the real world where people die.
UPDATE: Unless the Russians just panic and attack a NATO country, I don't see a war with Russia breaking out over Ukraine's territorial integrity.
I think America and NATO states will help Ukraine with intelligence, advice, training, weapons, and supplies if Russia attacks. And probably not as an official NATO action but as individual states.
Heck, some individuals from NATO countries will probably volunteer for service with Ukraine. I could totally see a Polish volunteer battalion go to Ukraine to fight.
But I don't see this spreading to a direct American-Russian fight. There would need to be a whole series of bad decisions and bad luck to result in that. That said, sometimes those events line up.
Your pucker factor may therefore vary.
UPDATE: The Russians really just lie with ease:
In the past three weeks, the Russian military has deployed two armies and three airborne formations to western regions “as a response to the alliance's military activities threatening Russia,” the defense minister said.
Because a NATO invasion of Russia would go through Ukraine, naturally.
It's like the Russians aren't even trying to credibly lie. Still, the Russians are contractually obligated to China to pretend NATO is a military threat for five more years.
UPDATE: The enemy of my enemy?
In March 2021 Turkey announced that it was developing a new helicopter gunship, the T929, based on the existing, but smaller, T129. The T929 will use engines from Ukraine, a country that has often sold military tech to Turkey when such equipment was not available from American or European suppliers.
The ties that bind?
UPDATE: This seems prudent:
Ukraine's armed forces rehearsed repelling a tank and infantry attack near the border of Russian-annexed Crimea on Wednesday, the Ukrainian military said in a statement.
I hope the Ukrainians have spent the last 7 years turning the road going north from Crimea into a Kursk salient fortress.
UPDATE: Hmmm:
Russia's plan to temporarily restrict movement of foreign warships in part of the Black Sea [near Russia-occupied Crimea] will not affect the nearby Kerch Strait, the RIA news agency reported on Friday[.]
Is Russia clearing the decks at sea for some type of operation against Ukraine? This really seems bad, to me.
UPDATE: It is risky, but Turkey is definitely tilting against Russia.
Perhaps Turkey has gotten used to the post-USSR security environment with Russia pushed back from Turkey's borders. Perhaps Turkey considers the risk worth it to keep Russia from looming too much over Turkey.
