Wednesday, June 05, 2019

How the Fuck-Up Fairy Visited Russia

I've speculated that Russian hostility toward NATO and the West is a bit of theater designed to conceal Russian appeasement of a growing Chinese threat to Russia's Far East.

While that policy may have seemed smart nearly 20 years ago when NATO was clearly not a threat and not hostile, the effects of Russian hostility and actual aggression against Ukraine has been to make NATO prepare for war as if the Russian hostility is genuine. We kind of have to.

And worse, is Russia closer to being able to face China with confidence in the Far East and allow Russia to turn off the hostility in the west? No. Hostility toward NATO has harmed Russia's economy and requires Russia to increase military power in the west to face a threat that would not exist but for Russia's two decades of being self-destructive idiots.

Do the Russians not realize they need us more than we need them because Russia has to have a secure European rear area to defend their Far East?

And instead of correcting their error, the situation is getting worse for Russia with a very direct connection between Russia's counter-productive hostility in the west and China's rise in the east:

Racing to upgrade its military, China has been turning to Ukraine. And Ukraine — with its economy scrambled by hostilities with Russia — has been willing to accept China’s embrace.

“If they ban us from working with China,” Boguslayev said, “then the first thing I’ll do is fire 10,000 people.”

Motor Sich, dubbed the “Czar of Engines” in the Chinese media, has what Beijing wants: It can supply warplane engines and the know-how to one day possibly make a Chinese-built version.

Really, bravo Russia. Truly stupendous. I don't want to hear another word about their chess-playing prowess in thinking ahead and punching above their weight.

Mind you, I'd rather not have China getting the ability to produce advanced jet engines. So I'm not happy with Ukraine and I'd love to get help from Europe to give Ukraine a non-Chinese alternative to saving their industry.

But Russia has been selling China engines anyway despite Chinese reverse engineering, so it isn't as if China lacks them. But when China doesn't need Russia to provide engines, will China bother pretending Russia is a partner rather than a potential target that holds a newly proclaimed Chinese "core interest" in the Russian Far East?

Putin should really worry that Russians will notice how he's effed things up royally.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings