Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Chest Beating and Flinging Poo

Hezbollah can pretend that they virtually welcome war with Israel, but they can't be that dumb.

Hezbollah is active in Iraq, fighting in Syria, watching other Lebanese forces in Lebanon itself where it is an autonomous force that runs southern Lebanon and acts as the decisive force in Lebanese politics, and watching Israel, of course.


The Shiite group doesn’t seem concerned about being overstretched—at least according to two commanders in Dahieh, a suburb of Beirut. On the streets, portraits showing a smiling Nasrallah adorn the walls, along with photos of handsome young fighters posing next to weapons—all men from the neighborhood who died while fighting in Syria. The two commanders sit side by side on a couch, smoking cigarettes and drinking syrupy tea. One is a ranking officer; the other, his lieutenant. “Since we went into Syria, we became much stronger,” the older officer says. “What was Hezbollah before? We were defenders. Now, we’ve learned how to attack offensively.”

The lieutenant interjects. “Hezbollah now has weapons that we never dreamed of,” he says proudly. “When Syria was at peace, we could never have had access to such weaponry, especially at these low prices.”

Hey, whatever it takes to sleep at night. Yes, it is a target-rich environment you guys have.

I'm just going to say that Hezbollah learned in Syria how to attack light infantry who lack fire support.

Second, Hezbollah got lucky in 2006 the last time the two tangled. Israel screwed the pooch with an unfocused war effort, blowing four weeks of time that America bought for Israel.

Israel is unlikely to repeat that error. The next time, I think Israel drives all the way to Baalbek for a multi-division raid that stays in Lebanon long enough to really destroy Hezbollah personnel, infrastructure, and weapons (and to gather intelligence, too).

And consider that the 120,000-rocket arsenal that Hezbollah boasts of having is an invitation for such a large land invasion. The reason is the simple fact that Israeli anti-rocket defenses simply can't destroy that many incoming rockets--even assuming Israel fires only at rockets predicted to hit a target worth defending.

Hezbollah is beating their chest and flinging poo. When the latter hits the fan, Hezbollah will find they need to run and hide as fast and as far as they can.

Iron Dome can only buy time for Israel to occupy the rocket-launching sites in southern Lebanon.

I'm surprised that Israel and Hezbollah haven't gone more rounds as Israel and Hamas have since 2006. I'll assume that absent the Syrian civil war, we would have seen one already.

Strategypage has useful information.