Sino-Taiwanese tensions are rising and the effects have begun to spread, so much so that they have started to complicate China's relationship with the United States. Over the past month, China has redoubled its efforts to weaken Taiwan's ties with diplomatic allies and defense partners while also tempering its own economic and diplomatic involvement with the newly elected Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei. Beijing's push to isolate Taiwan suggests that China thinks its approach toward Taipei over the past decade is becoming less effective, particularly in light of a potential shift in U.S. policy as Washington prepares to inaugurate a new president. This has moved Taiwan to the center of Beijing's foreign policy agenda, a shift that the Dec. 2 phone call between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has given added weight.
I was right to think the the most core of China's core interests would come to the forefront.
My more than decade old scenario for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan still stands as my template, although the forces involved have evolved.
And I did make a major modification of one detail of the Taiwan invasion scenario to incorporate new information that includes an amphibious invasion aimed directly at the Taiwan capital, Taipei.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: Amazingly, Taiwan doesn't seem to understand that freedom isn't free:
Last June, a delegation from the Senate Armed Services Committee, headed by Chairman John McCain, met with Taiwan’s newly elected president Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei and urged her to spend more on national defense.
It was not the first time that Washington has expressed dismay over Taiwan’s falling defense expenditures. Many in the U.S. government from both political parties have urged Taipei to do more for its own defense.
Seriously, do they value their freedom and independence so little?
Taiwan’s own defense ministry issued a white paper claiming that China will have the means to forcibly reunify Taiwan and the mainland by 2020. That report, written in 2013, gave Taiwan about a month to hold off the Chinese until help could arrive.
As my invasion scenario indicates, I think Taiwan grossly underestimates China's ability to invade sooner if China is willing to pay the price in lives.
Ultimately, Taiwan needs help from America and Japan to survive. But don't the Taiwanese understand that they have to hold off the Chinese long enough for America and Japan to decide to intervene and then intervene in sufficient strength to hold off the Chinese invasion?
If Taiwan is falling by the time we decide to intervene, there will be no intervention. Just a protest at the United Nations and perhaps a law making it possible for Taiwanese boat people to settle in America.
