Friday, December 30, 2016

One Way or Another, Hezbollah Could Be at War in 2017

If the Israelis don't think there will be a war with Hezbollah in 2017, it must be because Israel doesn't think the Syrian civil war will end in 2017 with either an Assad or rebel victory. Because if the civil war did end, that's when I'd hit Hezbollah in Lebanon really hard.

Israel doesn't think 2017 will be a year for war with Hezbollah or Hamas:

The Middle East regional chaos has weakened Israel's enemies and created a low probability of war involving the country in 2017, a senior Israeli military officer said on Wednesday.

The official said the army has concluded that neither Hezbollah militants in Lebanon nor Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip are interested in sparking a new conflict with Israel.

As long as Hezbollah is taking casualties in a fight in Syria, why not let a circular firing squad rage on its own?

But if the civil war in Syria starts to wrap up, that's when Israel should hit Hezbollah hard.

If Hezbollah and Hamas aren't interested in starting a new conflict now, that only means they would prefer to wait for a better time. Should Israel really cooperate with their timetables?

And the Trump administration might be more eager to demonstrate support for Israel to demonstrate a contrast to the Obama administration's simmering hostility to Israel.