Friday, June 19, 2015

But No Lovely Parting Gifts

We are thinking about post-Syria Assad. That's a good idea.

The war in Syria will change:

The United States and its allies are weighing the possibility that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, under growing military pressure, may soon narrow his focus on defense of more limited areas of the country, the top U.S. general said on Wednesday.

Yeah, that's a good possibility to entertain.

You'd think that we could exploit an Assad defeat to our benefit.

I have a bad feeling that somehow we'll be involved in saving Assad. Because our State Department is that good.

UPDATE: One change could be Assad backers pulling out of the war to save him:

A quiet insurrection against the Assad regime has been building for the past year in the Syrian province of Sweida, home to the bulk of the country’s minority Druze population. The rebellion reached a crescendo this week when a prominent religious figure declared that the Druze were no long obliged to serve in the Syrian Arab Army—a development that poses a major threat to the teetering regime of Bashar al-Assad, which has long been losing soldiers to defections and desertions and more recently been losing ground to an increasingly more organized and effective rebel force.

Is this just the first? It could be "every clan for itself" time. We may get an answer to my math question.

UPDATE: If Assad goes down, don't assume ISIL has a free ride to victory:

Kurdish-led forces in Syria advanced on Tuesday into the outskirts of an Islamic State-held town after capturing a military base overnight, aided by U.S.-led air strikes in some of the most dramatic gains yet against the militants.

Don't let fear of ISIL push us to save Assad. With our support, there are people--perhaps even ex-supporters of Assad--who can help us fight ISIL after Assad is beaten.