Saturday, May 10, 2014

Consolidating Core Syria

Assad's forces have reoccupied Homs which they had attacked and besieged since the start of the rebellion. This links Assad's Alawite stronghold near the coast with the capital.

Assad has a victory in preserving his hold on power in his corner of Syria:

Bulldozers cleared rubble Friday from the streets of battle-scarred districts in the central Syrian city of Homs after government troops entered the last rebel-held neighborhoods as part of an agreement that also granted opposition fighters safe exit from the city. ...

Some 1,700 rebels have left Homs since Wednesday under the deal struck by the government and opposition. The withdrawal, which brought an end to a fierce, two-year battle for the heart of Syria's third-largest city, marked a major victory for President Bashar Assad in the civil war.

This is a rebel defeat. But remember that the rebels had been holding this ground despite its importance for two years in the face of Assad's conventional military power.

And the rebels hold or deny Assad control of most of the country.

The rebels may yet be able to reinfiltrate Homs and region for more traditional means of resisting an occupying power. "Clearing" is usually the easier part of "clear and hold." With more outside aid flowing to rebels, Assad's forces will find that the conquest of Homs is not the light at the end of the tunnel.

UPDATE: Saying it doesn't make it so, but who knows? Maybe the horse will sing:

Iran and its close ally President Bashar al-Assad have won the war in Syria and the US-orchestrated campaign in support of the opposition's attempt to topple the Syrian regime has failed, senior Iranian officials have told the Guardian.

It's all about convincing Assad's Syrian base of support that their massive losses in blood and treasure will be worth it and that the light at the end of the tunnel is in sight.

Otherwise the rats might start abandoning a sinking ship of state when they see the impact of increased foreign aid to the rebels.