China is willing to smile as they engage in a charm offensive against Taiwan, but never forget that China isn't offering Taiwan any choice on the issue of independence:
Pressure is mounting on Taiwan's weakened president to open political talks with Beijing after Chinese President Xi Jinping told a former senior Taiwanese official that the longstanding division between the sides should not be strung out indefinitely.
Xi's comments Sunday on the sidelines of the APEC summit meeting in Bali, Indonesia. represented his strongest statement so far on the Taiwan unification issue, which remains a fundamental cause of instability in the western Pacific. China insists that the democratic island be brought under its control, and has threatened force to achieve that goal. The two sides split after a civil war in 1949.
If Taiwan wants these unsubtle threats to stay short of an outright ultimatum to submit to Peking's rule, Taiwan needs to take their military seriously. And that means both equipment and the recruitment and training of troops who are willing to fight and die to defend their island democracy.
UPDATE: I personally believe that the Chinese have the ability right now to attempt an invasion of Taiwan if the Chinese are willing to endure the risks of landing and possibly facing American and Japanese efforts to defeat the invasion. But with some bad luck and/or a fast American intervention, yes, the Chinese would likely fail.
But as China's military outstrips Taiwan's efforts and as China's anti-access capabilities slow us down sufficiently, China will have the odds in their favor.
Maybe be 2020:
China's arms buildup over the last two decades would give it the power to invade Taiwan by 2020 even if allies came to the island's aid, a military report said Tuesday.
The mainland's annual military spending has grown on average by double-digit rates over the past 20 years or so, according to Taiwan's 2013 National Defence Report. ...
"With the continued arms buildup, the Chinese communists will be able to take Taiwan by force before the end of 2020," it said.
The report also cited China's growing military capability to deter foreign intervention, in contrast to the US Pacific pivot policy which it said had been "stifled" due to budget constraints.
Those are the keys. Remember, as I've written for years, China doesn't have to defeat us to win a war over Taiwan. No, China needs to be able to defeat Taiwan within the time China can delay our effective intervention. That's way different.
