A Switch in Time?

Not long before Khaddafi's forces collapsed in Tripoli, I wondered if Khaddafi might engineer a split between the eastern and western rebels into a loyalist-eastern rebel alliance to smash the western rebels. But the western rebels emerged as a major faction and with NATO help, toppled the Tripoli bastion.

But the loyalists still resist, and Khaddafi is still on the loose. The rebels are faced with the task of actually completing the defeat of the loyalists while keeping sufficient force to emerge on top if the post-Khaddafi Libya continues the civil war among the victors:

NTC (National Transitional Council) fighters began yet another attempt to take the coastal town of Sirte (population 100,000, 360 kilometers east of Tripoli). This is Kaddafi's birthplace and the home of many of his core supporters (including many members of the Kaddafi tribe). One of Kaddafi's sons, Mutassim, commands the defenders in Sirte, which is considered the center of the remaining resistance. Thus the NTC has announced that the new government will not be formed until Sirte is conquered. This is not a well thought out policy (although it was presented as such), but a practical move by an NTC that isn't in charge and lurching towards a second round of civil war. In this conflict, the various anti-Kaddafi factions will battle it out to see who the new Libyan dictator will be. Moamar Kaddafi, hiding out somewhere in Libya, is calling for his supporters to get ready for the next round of fighting, and the possibility of the Kaddafis regaining power, or at least a place at the table.

You know, Khaddafi's forces could still be a kingmaker faction. Somebody on the former rebel alliance side will see it this way, I'm sure. My big switch could still take place.

And with Russia and China regretting their failure to veto the UNSC resolution that NATO twisted to topple Khaddafi, maybe they will try to bolster their dictator-defending street cred recently shown over Syria by working to restore the fortunes of Khaddafi even after his apparent defeat.

I did mention that the new alliance governing forces needed to mop up the loyalists because mostly defeating an enemy isn't the same as defeating an enemy. Give an enemy time and they just might find a way to use it. The Taliban learned that lesson by mostly defeating the Northern Alliance and seeing our special forces and smart bombs help that remnant of resistance smash the Kabul regime at the end of 2001. Will some of the rebels see their failure to finish off the loyalists come back to bite them in the butt?

I'd say NATO should keep UNSC 1973 handy. Our responsibility to protect in Libya might not be over.