Monday, October 03, 2011

On the Road to Damascus

The 6-month long unrest in Syria has too many dead bodies to be just a protest movement. But it is more than just brutal repression at this point:

Syrian troops retook most of a rebellious central town Saturday after five days of intense fighting with army defectors who had sided with protesters, a human rights group said.

Rami Abdul-Rahman, head of the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said the troops spread out across Rastan after defectors pulled out of the town.

The army defections, as well as reports that once-peaceful protesters are increasingly taking up arms to fight the government crackdown, have raised concerns of the risk of civil war in a country with a deep sectarian divide.

It isn't close to a civil war (based on what is happening, although it could be under the surface, I suppose). But the situation is escalating. The Assad regime needs the protesters to tire of being killed before the regime tires of killing. But the protesters could get tired of being killed and decide to do more of their own killing rather than give up and go home.

And don't forget the Turks. They did issue an ultimatum to Syria about 7 weeks ago to stop killing protesters. Nothing has come of that demand, but if sufficient Syrian troops defect and if several cities manage to hold off Syrian troops for a while, the Turks might finally set up safe zones in enclaves along the border. That could really get the ball rolling on Sunni defections from the army's lower ranks.

Oh, and if the Turks want an invitation to intervene, I think we have a candidate to make the request:

Syrian dissidents meeting in Istanbul on Sunday announced the formation of a council uniting most of their country’s fractious opposition groups, a step that activists hailed as a potential breakthrough in the months-long standoff between a largely leaderless protest movement and the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

The Syrian National Council aims to represent the opposition in dealings with the international community and to offer an alternative to Assad, something that has been lacking since ordinary Syrians began swarming the streets in March to stage anti-government demonstrations.

I've read that these guys are a far cry from the Libyan council that represented actual liberated zones, so it may not really represent the people on the ground in Syria. But that would be irrelevant if Turkey chooses to act as if the SNC is a true representative of the people of Syria.

UPDATE: I fixed that first sentence that did not originally say what I wanted to say.

UPDATE: Once again, Turkey comes up:

A dissident Syrian colonel who now heads a group of army defectors calling themselves the Free Syrian Army says he has fled Syria and found refuge in neighboring Turkey.

Is Turkey looking for an excuse to intervene? Could dissident civilians and troops call for Turkish humanitarian intervention and get a positive response from Istanbul?