The war is a stalemate, although long term the Kaddafi forces are likely to lose. But in the meantime Kaddafi has long experience in playing the international media and foreign diplomats in general. Kaddafi has dwindling resources, and his only way out is to either make an amnesty deal (which allows him and his family to retire somewhere with some of their stolen fortune) or to re-conquer the country. Both outcomes are unlikely.
Their judgment seems to depend on the assumption that Khaddafi will run out of money to paper over the fractures in his western rump realm. I hope they are correct.
But I'm not as optimistic about Khaddafi running out of resources to resist. Other tyrants seem to find ways to get money to keep going. And Khaddafi has plenty of foreign friends to help him out, despite boasts of how the world community is united to defeat Khaddafi. The lure of oil money in the future, at the very least, will keep some money flowing to Khaddafi.
Further, the assessment seems to rely on NATO continuing the pressure since it will take a long time for the rebels to get their act together. I'm guessing that NATO's effort falters before the loyalists crack.
It also assumes that the eastern rebels won't decide that they'd settle for having their own country rather than paying the price to defeat the loyalists and take over Libya completely.
In the long run we are all dead, as the saying goes. Khaddafi is surely included in that. And hey, as the death of Osama bin Laden demonstrates, we're persistent enough when we have the incentive to pursue someone.
But in the short or medium run? Unless we get lucky, I think Khaddafi survives this war.
UPDATE: It occurs to me that Khaddafi reportedly flipped because he was greatly affected by our forces pulling Saddam Hussein from his hiding hole inside Iraq. Could the killing of Osama bin Laden have a similar impact today and convince him to flee Libya? Might Khaddafi worry that he and his sons could face the same fate one day, and worry that he'll live in his palace in fear of American special forces attacking him? Or will Khaddafi fear that fate only if he leaves Libya for a mansion in exile and believe that holding on to power is the only way to maintain the resources to survive and avoid bin Laden's fate?
