Let's Hope Not

This paper argues that Australia will become America's primary ally in the Pacific.

Let's hope not.

I mean, I want closer ties with Australia--including defense. We certainly do need a staging area to confront China, if necessary, given problems we increasingly face closer to China because of China's growing military reach.

And Australia also provides a very convenient base for shifting forces between the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Australia has an interest in cultivating American ties to avoid having to choose between India and China as those powers increasingly face off. Australia is a small country on a big continent and lacks the resources to really defend their territory on their own. And let's not even go into Indonesia looming over sparsely populated Australia. Indonesia is hardly a threat, but Australia has to worry just a bit by the very size of Indonesia's population (heck, it's a wonder Canadians don't have that worry, just a bit in the back of their minds).

But I don't want Australia to be our primary ally out there. The last time Australia had that role was in World War II when Japanese forces swept to Australia's doorstep. No matter how important Australia becomes, I want our relationships with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to rank higher in importance. Because if they don't, it means we've lost them to China's sphere of influence and we have been pushed out of the western Pacific.

No, I want Australia to be an important ally that provides a secure rear area staging base for projecting power in defense of our allies closer to China, from India to Japan.